The Footy Trader

STW is dead, deceased, popped its clogs, no more, departed, gone for good, and most definitely bitten the dust.

Having a great day of it so far today using STW betting software!

I have been using IRIS and getting more used to it. I did have one race where I didn’t get the bet matched as I put it in too close to the end of the race, but otherwise I have been laying losers at Southwell and making money because they all lost.

There were a couple that might a bit close for comfort but thats the way it goes. I have been using the info from the daily donkey site and watching how the race was going for that particular horse. About 3-4 furlongs to go to the finish I have placed the lay bet if the odds were reasonable so I wouldn’t get caught with too big a liability if it decided that it did want to win after all. So far so good – I am really impressed with IRIS now that I have had a good amount of time to get in and use it.

I am not so keen on it with the short races, it all happens so quick in a 7 furlong race…..

The other thing I have been doing today is the scalping of the market in the horse race. I have chosen either a favourite or a second favourite in a longer race and placed a back bet and a lay bet at the same time. The back bet goes in at the level that the market is at when I place the bet and the other bet, the lay bet is an order really 10 ticks lower. During the course of the race the odds get smaller and the order for the second bet gets matched and I am greened up with some profit.

On one race I mangaged to do that twice and get some extra profit. Excellent stuff….. Using STW software of course to set up the scalp.

STW (Sports Trading Workstation): free Betfair software for enhanced punting and trading.

Get an edge now with STW – Download software here!

I did have a couple of loss of signal races today but thats technology for you. I was hoping to make an extra couple of quid to add to the coffers that have already been expanded today.

Later there is a football match on and I may do something with it. perhaps a scalping of the under-over 2.5 goals market. The only trouble is that I could do with soome time on the sofa as Santa being his generous self brought me a head cold with a runny nose and taking it easy would be nice. We will see….

Well here we are at that time of the year again. Comes around quickly doesn’t it. Looking forward to make some new podcasts during the holiday. I have a new mixer coming in, inexpensive but will allow me to use the expensive condensor mic that I have on my shelf for over a year.

Just messing around with a few things on line today not much time to do anything with Betfair. Not even had time to see the results from the Saturday games.

I have been looking at a web site called Squidoo. I am always looking for ways to promote the website and I saw this on a informative website about how to increase your website traffic. I created a Lens and I am still not sure what it does but maybe it will give me some links into this blog

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

I recorded direct, me using the IRIS service with STW betting software and here is the link to the video.

Using IRIS

I went with the soccer vista site information which bases suggestions for winners etc using computer based data  analysis. If a team has a ten then it is expected to win. I have not worked out yet how often is correct as a percentage but yesterday it didn’t do so well with quite a few teams winning away from home and against the odds.

However at the end of the day I was just 5.22 euro down from where I started. I made money on the Arsenal vs Portsmouth game with the under over 2.5 goals and with the match odds. I did the Reading Blackburn game as a dutch for the home win or draw and that lost me 9.57 euro. I think I would have done better working with the under over market. Newcastle vs Watford went well with the match odds and a dutch and the Aston Villa I did the under over.

I also did Deportivo la Coruña vs against Althletic Bilbao and Bilbao managed to cone up with a surprise by winning. They scored early and I reckoned it was likely that Deportivo would come up with a couple of goals to take it over the 2.5 goals mark. I should have traded out of that one rather than let it run.

I think today I will have a look at West Ham vs Man U with the Under over although soccer vista has that for an away win. I might also look at Español vs Real Madrid later which  will probably be a tight game……

OK this is how it has gone so far this Sunday

With the West Ham vs Man U I did the lay bet on the over 2.5 goals and then 5 mins into the game I backed it for half of the amount of the lay bet. Then 12 mins into the game I backed it again for the rest and I have a profit locked in there now.

I have also done the Football Cash Generator thing on the Werder Bremen vs Wolfberg. When Bremen scored after 19 mins I put in a back bet order to go at odds of 16 but 5 mins later the odds weren’t moving much so I cancelled ity and put in an order at 13. It was partly taken and left it so that there is 11.32 euro if either side win and 20 cents if it is a draw. Seeing as it is probably that Werder Bremen will win I deleted the last part of the bet that wasn’t matched. – As I write Wolfsburg have equalised so now I do need Bremen to score again to make a profit seeing as I had an insurance bet on the nil nil. Or Wolfsburg – I don’t mind which one wins although I have links with Bremen so I would prefer it to be be Werder Bremen.

I was playing with the Luton vs Southend game and the under over 2.5 goals market. I like it – It works a treat. Of course the real test is going to be seeing what happens when there is an early goal. I will let you know when that happens.

Today I put on a lay bet on the over 2.5 goals and I laid part of it off after 5 mins had been played. I then laid off another part of it after another 5 mins and the I did the rest a short while later. I then just played with STW for a while using the scalping function. The way this works is that it put in the lay bet for example at the odds available then puts in the back bet as per your settings – a certain number of ticks away in the right direction – and you can see how much you will earn when the second bet goes in in the bet confirmation window

This method involves trading before a goal is scored. Now you may think that is a risky, but there are various ways to minimize this risk.

Firstly, you need to locate the under/over 2.5 goals market on any given match.

The first rule of this system is to make sure that the “Under 2.5 Goals” selection is over 1.90 on Betfair.

Now why 1.90? This is because it means that its obviously going to be a tight game so there is not a large number of goals expected. Maybe 1-0, 1-1. 1-2 either way.

This method works as follows. Prior to kick off you place a LAY bet on the OVER 2.5 goals.

The aim is to trade off every 5 minutes. The prices will continuously be rising, providing there is no goal.

Within the first 5 minutes, the price should rise to at least 1.95.

Say we placed our lay bet of £100 at odds of 1.93.

Calculations would be as follows:

£100 x 1.93 = £93 liability

We wait 5 minutes after kick off. The price has now risen to 1.99. We now want to BACK the selection to trade it off for a guaranteed profit.

The calculations would be as follows.

£100 x 1.99 = £99 profit.

Trade = Profit – Liability which would give us a guaranteed profit of £6.

Now this doesn’t seem like much, but if you constantly repeat this method throughout a game you could profit heavily.

The best plan is to use the following structure for this method to maximize profit.

1. Complete this trade twice.

2. Wait for a goal.

3. Complete the trade twice once more.

I recommend doing it in that order. This has been tried and tested on various matches and the best plan to stick to is the one above.

So to review the rules of the system, they are as follows.

1. Make sure you select the Over/Under 2.5 goals.

2. The odds of “Over 2.5 goals” must be 1.90 or more.

3. Follow the system structure.

Wow! what an end to the game. I was looking like Arsenal would be happy with a nil nil draw but then Arsenal scored and put some fire into the game. I had put a dutch on the Chelsea to win or the draw. I decided to leave that runnning and then put a dutch on the correct score so that if the score stayed the same I would lose a smaller amount. I dutched the 0-1 and the 1-1

The last 5 minutes of the game 4 mins of it being the 4 mins of extra time was heart stopping for me. The ball hit the post of the Arsenal goal a couple of times and fortunately the ball didn’t go in.

In the end I made a fiver on the correct score dutch and a couple of euro on the match odds with it ending at the draw.

I was using STW Software while trading on this game.

I had things working in the Barcelona game and Betfair which had an “Upgrade” the other day went down.
Barcelona scored and I wanted to put in the back bet so I could lock in the profit and I couldn’t do anything. Bet/IE wasn’t working either so I was pleased that BetAngel Basic was able to come to the rescue. It really is basic but it did the job. I sometimes use it to spread out the money if STW has messed up the greening up.
Anyway in the end I get the bet in and it is greened up more or less. It will give me more if it ends a draw but I don’t expect that to happen. Mind you I have seen a last minute goal from this tema put me in the money before. BUT I am a Barcelona fan so I am not going to start cheering  on Real Sociedad. I was going to thing about doing the FCG on the Sevilla vs Real Madrid game but I think I will leave it alone seeing as BetFair is messing about.

I suppose the trouble with the system was what caused a bet I put on a horse to lose using IRIS didn’t get taken. Shame that because it did lose too.

Yesterday I was using the Football cash generator to make some money from the Leverkusen vs Hertha Berlin game. There wasn’t a clear favourite but the nil-nil  had high odds of 17. So I didn’t need to get really high odds for the back bet.

I set it all up and I only needed odd of 5.5 on the back bet to make the 25% target on the game, but what happened was that Berlin the away team scored first and the odds didn’t go to where I wanted them too. I could have traded out with a minimal loss.  While I was deciding what to do Leverkusen scored and brought it level to 1-1. As the nil nil insurance bet was no good any more I put in a dutch on 1-1 2-1 and 1-2 and watched it to see what happened when the teams came back on the pitch after half time. I left it for ten minutes and there was no score and then I decided that to protect the bank I would trade out of the match odds market with a loss about 4 euro. I still have the  correct score working for me and I just kept an eye on the game incase there is another goal.
Leverkusen scored before the 70 min mark and the odds on the correct score went down. I had to decide then should I trade out to a loss of 9 or 10 euro on the game or leave it in the case that there would be no more goals.
As it turned out there were no more goals and I made money on the correct score of 2-1.

So the course of action which was to put some more on the correct score market paid off after me being cautious and trading out of the lay bet on the draw. I was right to do that because it it had stayed as a draw for the final score I would have been down by around 55 euro and that would not be  good at all.

I started to record my actions so I could make a movie of the process but the first goal went in as the computer was still process the first part of it. I will try again tomorrow Saturday. I think I know how to make it work for me this time. I will show how I chose the games and how I place the trades using STW Software.

Extra note
One gram of gold is worth about 15€ and I am giving away a Gram of Gold to registered members of my Wizardgold site.

Using STW betting software to make the trades and the Football Cash Generator spreadsheet to set it up I did the Manchester United vs Benfica match and also the Dinamo Kiev vs Real Madrid match.

It worked a treat with the Madrid game althoug because I used 105% as my requirement for the insurance bet I did have to wait until Kiev scored a second goal to get the odds I wanted to hit the 25% target for the FCG . I am wondering if I might be better off to set the insurance bet at 75%. I will check out some numbers when I have the spread sheet open again.

Then the other game Man U went one goal down after about 15 mins (Fergie must have been a little miffed) and I wasn’t sure whether to trade out. If it was an away game I think I would have traded out but I looked at the minute by minute report of the game and saw that Man U were actually playing well so I left it alone. They went and scored just before half time. Still leaving it because the was plenty of time left in the game I was able to trade out of the match odds market with a back bet giving a good profit and also the correct score market so that I was in profit overall for the game. Good job I traded out of the correct score also because I had covered 2-1 but not the 3-1 score where the game ended.

So – Nice one another profitable evening with BetFair