The Footy Trader

It started off OK and by the forth race I was more than 2 points up. I think at one point I was up even further than that. But as the day wore on the results went down the pan and in the end I was looking at a loss that took all the previous couple of days gains away. So not I am back to an overall loss of 9 Euro. So the loss today was 9.43 points of the betting bank which works out to 37.75 euro.

So I should have started with at least 120 euro in the betting bank and would have been better with more, maybe 200 or 240 euro.

Not too worried about it as it is all about the long term with this system but I wouldn’t want to see a losing run lasting too long. My betting bank isn’t really big enough for running this system but my min bet size with Betfair is 4 euro. So I should have started with at least 120 euro in the betting bank and would have been better with more, maybe 200 or 240 euro. I only started with 80 and now I am down to 71.80 Euro. I have some cash that I can add to it at the beginning of next month but for now I have to run with this.

What I would like to do is work on a percentage basis. I think 2% of the betting bank would work well for me. With the Racing Place software I could set that in the parameters easily and it would be nice to have it work on a race by race basis. Could start to see some compounding in action with that. But to have 2 % as my amount to bet on each race I would need a betting bank of 400 Euro so until I get to that level I will have to be cautious and try and protect the betting bank as best I can.

I think part of the problem with today was that there were a few races with 13 runners. The probabilities of picking 3 horses to be placed with that size of field is not too good. Working with a race of 9 or 10 runners would be much better odds. Maybe I will have to make a separate decision concerning races where there are too many runners.

So for now we will have to hope that tomorrows picks are better than todays.

Still using BetIE as my betting software for placing the bets and don’t forget that you can do this in learning mode and try out this or any other system without risking any cash.

A daily 3% increase in the betting bank would be just great. Do some sums on that and you will see how that builds very, very nicely over time. Eve 1% daily would be good too.

Today I used the Free Racing Place tips and thats what got me my profits. I would have had more but I experimented with two €4 hedging bets in running. So I would have been €8 better off at the end of the day. I have been successful with such a strategy in the past. I chose a weak favourite – so a horse with odds of 3 to 3.5 and backed it at the start of the race. I then put in an order for a lay bet.

Well actually I used the LazIE bet feature in BetIE, which automatically placed the lay bet order for me 1 second after the back bet went in. I set the number of ticks to be 3 ticks. So I was looking for the lay bet to be smaller by 3 moves in the market. Trouble was, is that I picked horses that started badly and then never looked like they had a chance of getting in front. (It happens sometimes).

Still there is always tomorrow….

Using Racing Place and one small trade on a football game I increased the betting bank by approx 30%. Very pleasing result. I didn’t go the whole day with Racing Place as I decided to stop while the winnings were good. I have not seen the results for the evening with the Wolverhampton meeting yet but the tactic of stopping when well on top is good for me right now.

Up until the race where 2 horses got in the placings at good prices the money level was static mostly just a few cents down overall. There were a couple of races where  I didn’t do it because I thought the number of runners were too high compared to the number of selections  and therefore not having such a good probability of giving some pay back.

I have found a site with some calculators which is pretty useful Betcalc. Some of the calculators on there are of no use to me because the calculations are built into BetIE already for me, but one I did find of use was the value bet calculator.

Value bets are the holy grail of gamblers where the probability of an event happening and the odds available are such that you have value and will with consistancy  make money using value bets. For example there is a probability of 7.76% of there being a nil nil score in the Premiership which is equal to approx 92% that there will be one goal or more. Using the value bet calculator I can see that with back odds of 1.1  over 100 bets  at 1€ per bet I will have profit of €1.20 -  thats with 92 bets being successful out of 100.

So if you know what the current probability of  something happening then you can work out what odds you want to be getting to make sure you will win in the long run. It may be possible to improve the probability if you know your market and chose games where nil nil is more unlikely.

There is another calculator on that site Lay 0~0 / Back 1 or more goals Calc which gives you a comparison of the different ways to make the same bet on the nil nil so you can take the odds which give the best value. Its all maths really.

Personally I did well yesterday with Racing Place but the latter part of the day let them down. I wanted to watch a film in the evening so I didn’t participate with the evening racing at Wolverhampton. Racing Place figures show a loss that wipes out yesterdays good day. While this is OK in the long run I am happy to have been able to have a nice profit for the day.

I did add a little to the profit by trading on the Frankfurt football game in the under 2.5 goal market. At the start of the game the odds were at 2.14 and I got in there at 2.1. I played with it a little and greened up at 7 mins then backed the unders again another 2 times to leave me with a profit of €2.68 on the unders and €0.69 if there were 3 goals scored.

I couldn’t believe that I could do so well with it. It didn’t always go the way I wanted but I managed to get it right so that I did 12 races in a row making profit. In fact 144 euros worth of profit. There was one other on which I made a profit but I didn’t add to the list because I decided before the end of the race not to use the result because I made a mistake – did a lay instead of a back. The profit on that one was nearly 700 euro. Amazing huh??

I didn’t use the new part of BetIE today LazIE, I used the money meter along with the graph tool. If I got a nice load of pink on the meter it tells me that the odds may come in and if the meter shows a lot of blue then we are looking at a drifter. Mostly I was laying first then backing after. There were some races where I might have thought that the horse looked like it was going to lose and I had it laid so I could have made 100 euro on the race but I always put in the trade order that I was looking for right at the start of the race if I was trading in running and going for the more reliable trading profit rather than the gamble of the money that might have been.

I couldn’t do too much trading during the weekend and certainly had no time to keep working with horses and reading the market. I will get back to that tomorrow.

I did though have a go at some football games. On Saturday there was the Man U game. Although there was a good few goals in the game and the first one happen after I had got greened up.  I did a few other football games too, in particular the game between Valencia vs Espanol  which was interesting as I still made money on the game despite the first goal going in after 5 mins. and the second on 20 mins. The third goal was at 81 minutes and by then I had been greened up and the money was made.

I have been perusing the stats for the football and the under 2.5 goal market is perfect for trading and represents great value for betting. On top of the fact that 52% of games are under 2.5 goals there is the fact that early goals are not that common. teams seem to need to get into their stride. I did read that the average time for the first goal is 37 minutes. I am planning to do my own research on this to prove it to myself. What all of that means is that to back the unders at the start of a game and get greened up before 20 mins is just a brilliant strategy. Use Bet IE to place the trades so that you can do it quickly and easily. In BetIE you have money meters and graphs to help you and best of all once you have paid for it there are no monthly payments.

If you don’t believe me about this strategy try it for yourself in learning mode and you will convince yourself of this way of trading on the football games.

  Advanced tip for the under 2.5 goal market.

I look at the game which I have got greened up and is a sure profit since 15 minutes into the game at about 10 minutes from the end. I like to free the cash on the other side of the trade by placing a back bet when the odds are maybe around 1.05 or 1.06 – If the scoreline is nil nil or only with one goal scored. It gives extra profit to add to your bank for very little risk.

I have been using BetIE during the last couple of days to try and learn to read the market. There are a number of pointers built into BetIE to help you. So far I still have not got it right but still managed to trade my way to profit. I shudder top think how it could be if I was to start to get it right.

The trade I am in now I got wrong, well not really – I wanted to do a back first then lay, but the 2 previous trades I had tried the other way around. Lay first then back after. I forgot to reset the software and the lay bet went in first. Which was a shame because I had read the market right otherwise. I put in a Lay bet of 100 euro at 2.72 and the next bet with LazIE bet is sitting there as an order for 2.76 euro. Well I had to trade it in running and I had a couple of chances to trade out at a profit. I left it the first time then I got a second chance and backed it for 4.00 with 100. That left me with a possible 128 euro if Baily won the race. It didn’t though and came second. Would have been 100 up if I had left it. I should have altered the bet amount so that the money was equalised.

The race was a 7 furlong short race and not much time to be able to do much in running. I had the same problem in the 2 previous races 6furlong and 5 furlongs and both of those I got wrong with the reading of the market. Good job we have learning mode in BetIE so that they were not costly mistakes. Well worth buying BetIE so that you can spend time learning to do it before you put up the cash in Betfair.

OK lets look at the next race Newmarket 2.35pm

The money meter was telling me to lay EKTIAAR as there was a good lot more money on the back side. Of course the price went the other way after that and there was only a couple of mins before the start. So in running I backed it d it 8.80 and the equalised the profit so in the end I had 20 euro winnings whatever happened. It didn’t win the race either. Came in 4th.

Ayr 2.45

Just backed Quest For Success 100 euro at 2.42 and the lay bet just got taken also so I have a profit of 0.84 – Nice to get it right that time. the price has come down now to 2.34 so I could have made more money on it but for now getting the reading of the market right is more important to me.

2.55 Goodwood

I went with Lady Dedlock following the prompt from the software and the price went the wrong way ???? Backed at 13 with and order in there at 12.5 and the price has gone to 19.5. Looks like i will have to try and trade out in running with this one……..Didn’t work out – I messed it up good and proper. Hail Learning mode !!!!!

Newmarket 3.10 pm

I followed the lead from LazIE and set a 1 tick movement to take profit on Majeen and it worked like a charm. Within a minute I have a profit of 4 euro sitting there. Backed at 25 with 100 and laid at 23 – I could have made more — lots more as the price has come right down to 15

Ayr 15.20

I went for Carrickmacross as  the indicators suggested a movement downwards and of course it went up I backed at 4.80 with 100 and when it went in running I fired in the lay bet order at 4.6 straight away. It got matched at 4 so I had the profit of €66.95 if it won and 4.35 profit if any of the other horses won.

It won so that was a good result….

Goodwood 15.30

2 mins to god before the off and nothing jumping out as a possible trade. No clear favourite on this and it is a short race too.

So I will give a try with a Lay then back on MinWir – laid it a 9.4 – I will probably have to get in a trade in running.

Got matched at €13 311 if it wins and €4.08 if it doesn’t

Newmarket 15.45

I did a lay to back on Lion Sands using LazIE bet in BetIE with a 2 tick target lay at 2.48 and backed at 2.52 so there is a €1.52 profit there already. and still 7 minutes before the race is due to start. I put in another just to try it out for some more money. Still waiting for the odds to go the right way. 1 min before the race is due to start. Looks like an in running bet. Got matched right at the off – €5.05 if Lion Sands winds and €3.08 if it doesn’t.

Ayr 15.55 1m5f

Nothing in the run up so I tried a LazIE bet at the off with a target of 2 ticks for profit. Got matched pretty quick with the lay bet and there is €2.63 profit there, before the race is finished.

Goodwood 16.05 1m4f

€1.82 profit on any horse 2 mins before the race has started. I backed then laid Pivotal Answer. Just done a back to lay in running and the profit is now €3.59.

Newmarket 16:20 5 furlong

laid TAX FREE before the off and then backed in running for a profit of €2.56

Ayr 16:30

Tried a lay on one that was highlighted and I should have checked the chart because I saw that the trend was down and I wanted an upwards movement. But it worked out though even with it being a short 6 furlong race and I had a profit of €4 at the end of it. I just threw in a back bet as soon as the race started and it was soon matched.

Goodwood 16:40 1m3f

I laid Dustoori at 1.74 and I am looking for a back price of 1.76 – Another one for trading off in running. less than a min to go before the off. Odds now 1.70 to back ( I got the direction of the odds wrong again)

Got matched just after the start of the race at 1.79 leaving a profit of 1.14 or 4.10 if Dustoori wins – and it did win

Newmarket 16:55

5 minutes before the off I have backed Mango Music at 9.2 and I am looking for 8.8 on the lay side now. This is another of those short 6 furlong races. 3 mins and the odds went to 9 but not the extra tick I am looking for.Now gone back up to 9.4. I think I might just trade out in running, although the odds have hit 10.

Well that was a disaster – I really should have left the short race alone or at least gone with a lay first rather than a back. The damage was €100.

The lesson is that I should have traded out before the start of the race with those circumstances, I could have traded out at odds of 10 which would have been a manageable loss in the long view.

Saved of course by BetIE and the Learning mode which is invaluable.

For the next race I have decided to try a dutch. Short race again and I can’t be bothered with the trading on this one. 5 horses out of 9 covered. 5.87 euro if one of them wins. But an outsider won it and thats €50 learning mode euros down.

So today has be a good day for learning things and not so good for making money.  I could have done a few things better and there were a couple of things I did purely for trying it out to see what would happen. I am sure that I would be a little more cautious with real money. The main thing is to try out a system and see how it fares over a longer period.

to that end I will give myself a month period to see how it goes learning but trading as if I was using real money. Main thing is to protect the bank at all costs. On some of trades that lost today I would have only had a small loss if I had traded out to stop a bigger loss. Overall I would have increased the size of the bank probably. There are always bad days. Ray the sports trader has a bad day from time to time but still manages to have good monthly profits.

It is all about the long view with a good system  and using BetIE is a good way to do it.

I have been testing out a new module in the BetIE stable. It is a super little thing which helps immensely with the trading on Betfair when working with the horse racing. To tell you how good it is, consider that while I am learning and experimenting and not really knowing what I was doing with it I was still making money with it. Amazing or what.

The guys at BetIE or Betty as we like to call the software put together what they call a tissue which is their analysis of the horse race and all you have to do is to check the numbers, the weight of money graphs and the graph which shows the overall direction of the odds and use LazIE to place your bet. I leave it set to take the money at 2 ticks and equalise the profit over all of the runners. Or you could use it to have a free bet on one horse.

I still use BetIE to help me make money on the football games. I did some trading on the Manchester United vs Roma game this evening in the Under over 2.5 goal market and 15 mins in the game I was greened up to the tune of €11. So whatever the score I was eleven euros better off.

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