Betfair want to rip off their customers that do well so Betdaq are taking advantage of the general unrest in the Betfair side of things by offering 2% until the end of the year. All you have to do is to send in an email and ask for it.
It would be a good thing if the numbers go up on Betdaq so the liquidity is better, which will lead to improved betting and trading.
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As you can see from my postings of late I have been trying out the Football Cash Generator and in this podcast I give a review of it. It is the first part of the review because it still needs some more testing.
Have a listen to get the low down on the Football Cash Generator. Does it work? What are the possible pitfalls? How can it be used to best advantage?
Here is the mp3 version which is a bigger file but here in case you have problems with the enhanced version
I made €89.66 on the Sunderland game then €18 on the next game total winnings of 107.66 then I did one more game and that was Liverpool Stoke and would you know it there was a nil nil draw. So that took €239 from the profit leaving a deficit of €131.34 loss from the betting bank I started the day with of €250 leaving €118.66 left to play with in the betting bank.
Not a good start and what are the lessons to be learned? Was the insurance bet set high enough? Was the lay bet too high for the odds that were available? Should I have left the West Ham game run longer so that I could have taken more profit from it?
To start with the West Ham game was the correct decision, greening up when there is a goal and it is nearly to the target level is good because we can’t see into the future.
With the insurance bet I am wondering if the size should be adjusted so that the ratio of the profit target hits a certain percentage, in particular to the level of 25% as per the Spreadsheet. I am going to look at the odds required to get the target when the first goal goes in when the insurance bet is increased. Obviously to get a higher target profit then the odds needed will be higher.
Definitely there is some tweaking to be done. What I need to know is what level of strike rate I can expect. How many times to I need to win to cover the losses that happen from time to time.
Then again this was only the first day of this test and maybe I was just unluck getting a nil nil so soon in the test. As I said only 8% of games end with no score.
The other question about the level of the lay bet is that it should fit in with a betting bank money management system. The liability should not be so high that just one or two losses in a row, which could happen, will clean you out so that you can’t continue with out adding to the betting bank.
Now I will work with what is left and adjust the strategy to suit the smaller betting bank.
I greened up after the first goal to lock in some profit. I took €18.50 instead of the full €25 of the target. As you can see from the graph the odds rcketed after the second goal from West Ham and I could have locked in more profit.
The idea though is to protect the bank whenever possible and green up when you can. I think it was a prudent move still to green up after the first goal. That is the basis behind the whole system anyway.
I have set this up as a home win in the Football Cash Generator and Here is a snapshot of the settings in the spreadsheet. Click on it to get more detail in the larger image.
UPDATE – profit from this one worked out like this. €100 less 5% = €95- €5.34 loss on the nil nil = €89.66
So the Football Cash Generator fund opened with €250 now is €339.66
Today I will doing the Football Cash Generator with these two games. The Odds look like it will work and I expect a home win in both of these games. I have set the insurance bet at 25% on the nil nil.
I will be monitoring the matches while in play later. At the moment there is still another two and a half hours before kick off.
I saw that Ronaldo was sidelined on the bench but they do have other strikers ?? The game this evening against Vila Real ended 0-0 and you would have thought that Man U could have won the game on the home territory. But then they have not been doing too well in the Premniership this season either.
I was interested in the result because it is a game I would have chosen for the Football cash Generator and it would have lost me money. It would have been very good for the trading of the under 2.5 goals market but bad for the FCG.
Madrid won 2-0 at home and that would have worked out nicely for the FCG though. I am looking forward to the weekend Premiership games so that I can do some more testing of the settings for the FCG. I think that there are optimum settings that will take into account value of the bets and the number of times you can expect to profit vs the number of times and the amount of money you would lose on a bad game, like the Man U game.
England are playing today and will be beating the team of part timers from Andorra. I wonder if it is on the TV anywhere, should be lots of goals anyway. I don’t think I will be trading on the game but It could be interesting to see how it looks in terms of the Football cash Generator system. I will have to check and see what time the game is due to start. —-It starts in an hour. Now where is my copy of the FCG spread sheet.
Just looked at the odds on Betfair and it is not really do able. You do want one side to be a favourite but the price for the lay on the draw right now is 36. So you would need a large amount of money in Betfair to cover the liability 700 to be exact if you place 20 euro on it. It will be interesting see what the odds go to after the first goal is scored anyway.
Spain vs Bosnia could be a better proposition for this the lay odds for the draw is at 9 right now and the back price for the nil nil is 22.
I have set the profit required as 25%
Insurance on the nil nil as 50%
The spreadsheet tells me that with a lay draw stake of €25
I should back the 0-0 with €4.75
The odds I need for the target of 25% profit are 16 or if 20% is OK 14.77.
I will have to watch the game now to see how the odds work out and hope that Spain can score first.
I see that Wales have got a goal in their game and won one nil at the final whistle. Scotland and Northern Ireland not faring so well. Scotland lost and Northern Ireland are losing one nil.
