I have just been checking the stats on the Soccerstats site and in particular the under 2.5 goals stats. As you know I believe the getting value with your bets is important. So I took the data from Soccerstats and put it in to Betcalc.com which has a value calculator. The reason I did this was because the stats this season indicate more goals and more games where the final score is more than 2.5 goals. Last season I remember it being around 48%.
With 48% you needed to get odd of at least 2.10 to have a value bet and now with 43% as the statistic for games under2.5 goals you need odds of 2.35 to be getting value.
I don’t think that the odds for the unders on Betfair or Betdaq has reflected this change in the numbers, so that is not such a good thing. You need to be getting value because if thing do go wrong and you have to leave a trade as a straight bet then you want to know that you have the value.
If you get bets at odds of 2.30 on the unders on 43% in the stats then after one hundred bets you will have lost 1.10 pounds or Euro or whatever. If you get odds of 2.35 then you should make 1.05 Euro or pounds.
Lets look at the odds available in the premiership games on today
2.38
So you can see that in most of these games there are poor odds where getting a value bet is concerned. I think also that this can affect how fast the odds change at the start of a game too. Obviously the higher the odds the faster they will fall when five, ten, fifteen or twenty minutes have gone in the game and no goals have been scored.
What you could do is to look at the odds after a goal has been scored. Often the odds go up fairly high and then have a sharp fall for the next five or ten minutes of the game. It could be a better strategy than taking the poor odds at the start of the game. All you have to worry about then is the quick equaliser goal. I dodn’t know what the stats are for that occurance but it should be slim enough that the overall strategy will be a winner.
