The Footy Trader

NAC worst case scenario

Third goal goes in at 90 minutes or later as happened with Spurs v Liverpool today and there is not much you can do! You have lost the money on the under 2.5 goals and lost the money from the over 3.5 goals. You may have something on one of the correct scores to take a bit of the edge off and fortunately that was the case with this game.

The losses on the NAC today

• lose 50 on the over 3.5
• lose 52 on the under 2.5
• lose 5 on the correct score of 1-2
• win 44 on the correct score of 2-1

Total loss = 63

That’s the way the cookie crumbles and you have to take it on the chin. Nothing really you can do about it. I don’t know yet if maybe there is a strategy you could take at perhaps 80 minutes to perhaps green up and get out if the score is still 2-0 or 1-1. Often you get last minute goals and the balance is to see how often this scenario will happen statistically for your application of this trading method and make sure you are making enough on the winning days to cover the occasional loss.

The forth goal went in at 66 minutes. win 98.5 less 47 on the under 2.5 goals and 10 on the correct score.

Profit of 41.50

NAC with Manchester United vs Blackburn

Good job I got the first bets on the game before the game started as goal number one went in at 2 minutes. I was also doing the Footy Money Maker strategy on the same game. The final score looks like it will be 7 – 1 to Manchester only a couple of minutes to play as I write this. A high scoring game al round today with 6 games out of 8 with more than 4 goals. Perfect for nearly all covered.

There was 72.80 profit on the over 3.5 goals less 45 on the under 2.5 goals and 10 on the correct score market leaving 17.80 profit.

So with the Footy Money Maker I laid the draw at odds of 5.8 and greened up with odds of 12 after the 1st goal. I could see that the best thing to do when goal 3 at 27 minutes went in from Man U was to leave it alone and take the profits when the 4th goal went in. I was in the top profit situation with the NAC at 47 minutes.

I went with the 20 on each of the 1-0, 0-0, 0-1. I was able to green up at about 28 minutes and I had plenty of time as the first goal didn’t happen until 50 minutes.

I did the same with the Fulham vs Birmingham City game. That game finished 1 – 1 and I was greened up and in profit at around the same time as I was done with the Wolves game. The method I used is a bit more risky than doing the first ten minutes with the under 2.5 goals. Once a goal goes in you have lost the 20 on the nil nil and left having to salvage something on the other 2 scorelines you have covered. But that is not what happened today. There were five goals eventually in the Wolves game, good for me that they didn’t go in until I was done and dusted with the game.

It was an all round successful today with the Betfair trading. I admit to the paper trading with the NAC method as I am still working out how to get the best of it.

I have had an evening trying out the NAC method again. Paper trading again while I learn the strategy as it is a bit complicated.

Recap NAC

Start with backing the over 3.5 – > Back the under 2.5 to cover the bet placed on the over 3.5.
Then the area that needs to be covered is the correct scorelines that have 3 goals. 2 – 1, 1 – 2, 3 – 0 and 0 – 3. Usually placing 2 bets on the most likely scores of those. So that could be 2-1 and 3-0 to favour one side.

The over and under cover each other. if there are only 2 goals in the game you just lose the money on the correct scores.

I have been working with the 50 on the over 3.5 goals and the under 2.5 goals bet covers it including the 5% fee you pay to Betfair when you win. I have been putting a fiver on each of the 2 correct scores. So the liability is going to be a tenner. That is what you will lose if there are only 2 goals.

Where it gets interesting is the trigger to do something is on the third goal. I saw a video showing this technique and it did the possibility of putting more on the correct score market. I think it depends on the odds. You don’t want to put too much on that in case there is another goal because that will limit how much you will make on the four goals scenario.

The other possibility is to green up the over 3.5 goals. You maybe will also green up the correct score market at the same time. Easy to do if you are using BetAngel. Only one press of a button per market and you are greened up.

Actual trading with the NAC ?

I looked at 3 games and I would have done 4 but I was slow getting to the start of the game and Spurs had scored already. There were only a few minutes gone and it is testament to the notion that you should give yourself time to be ready for the action in plenty of time.

The games

• Valencia vs Bursaspor
• Panathinaikos vs Barcelona
• Inter Milan vs Twente

Valencia

The Valencia game worked perfectly and I could see that after the third goal at 30 minutes, I would be best to just leave it alone and wait for the 4th goal and have the profit sewn up. Well I didn’t have to wait long and at 37 minutes I could just concentrate on the other 2 games. There was a profit of 46.

Panathinaikos

Barcelona were slow getting the goals and I had to wait until the 69th minute before the 3rd goal. After looking at what I had on the bets already placed I decided to put more on the 0-3 scoreline. There were another 20 minutes left of the game, so there could be another goal happen. I put as much on the correct score as I could and still have some profit if another goal went in. No more goals – It ended with just 3 goals and I had a loss of 17.5

Inter Milan

Only one goal in the game from Inter and so I won the money off the under 2.5 and lost on the correct score and the over 3.5. The overall loss on that game was only 5.40. Well a little bit more when you take into account the 5% of 54.6 to pay Betfair commission.

Final result for the NAC for the evening trading.

Profit of 23.10 Not bad really considering the sums I was working with.

NAC Profitable or not

This evening yes, it was successful, but I still have to get the feel of it a bit more. I want to see how it is long term. There are choices to make when the third goal goes in and you could make the wrong decision and lose money. I have worked out a spreadsheet to help me decide what to do but that needs to be refined some more to take into account various possibilities.

It can be better to do the greening up and also it can work better to put money on the correct score. it even can be the right move to leave it alone and just wait for goal number four, which is what I did with the Valencia game.

NAC Betfair strategy

My first try of the evening of European Champions League games didn’t go the way I wanted and it was very much a learning experience of the NAC method. There a number of choices to make and sometimes it is not easy to decide on what to do. Well thats how it seems for a novice of this technique.

It depends on what scores you have chosen in the correct score market. You want to cover a couple of the endings that have 3 goals in them. 2-1 or 1-2 are popular scorelines more so than the 3-0 or 0-3 finishes. I think you need to pick the ones that you think most likely in a game. Maybe also change your mind a little if a goal goes in that means one of your choices can not possibly win. Say for example you have the 3-0 on one side covered but the other side put one in. ( You really have to try this strategy out a few times to get the hang of it.)

In this game I put the €50 on the over 3.5 goals odds of 4.2 and then put on €73 on the under 2.5 goals to cover the €50 on the over 3.5.

With the correct scores I went with 1-2 and the 0-3 a fiver on each. Any what happened was that Shaktar got the third goal at 68 minutes and after looking at what I had on the over 3.5 and on the correct scores the best thing was to green up on both of those markets.

It actually worked out quite well because the final score was 0-3 – there were no more goals to tip it into the 4 goals needed to make the money and with the greened up Correct score giving €30 and the over 3.5 giving €53.19 making a total of €83.19 less the money lost on the under 2.5 goals of €73, gave a profit of just over a tenner. Not bad really.

I will try the NAC nearly all covered method on a few more games to see if I can get the better of the system.

If you want something a little easier to get you head around get the Footy Money Maker Or try some trading on the under 2.5 goals at the start of a game, first ten minutes.

NAC is a bit of a tricky one to work. If you have a game that ends with 3 goals you have to cover a good few option to make sure you don’t lose any money.

Today I was trying it with Spartak Moscow vs Marseilles. I paper traded it which is only sensible, but here are the figures.
50 on the over 3.5 goals at odds of 4.5 = 175
70 on the under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73 = 51.10
5 on 2 – 1 correct score odds of 21 = 100
5 on 1 – 2 correct score odds of 9.8 = 44

later after the first goal I thought I should put something on 0 – 3
5 on 0 – 3 correct score odds of 5.4 = 22

Well the third goal is the trigger to do something and it went in to make it 0 – 3 at 68 minutes.

NAC Choices

I could green up on the over 3.5 goals. I have already lost the money on the unders and the 2 – 1 scorelines

OR

I can put money on 3 – 0 correct score. In the video I saw of this method of trading the person put the money on the correct score and that is what I went with. What you are hoping is that there will be that 4th goal and that is where the money is with in this case is only a tenner, because I had to put enough on the 0-3 scoreline to not lose too much if that is the final score.

It did end 0 – 3 to Marseille. Moscow had a player sent off at 64 minutes and there could have been another goal.

In hindsight I think it could have been better to had hedged the bet on the over 3.5 goals and leaving the correct score bets alone.

With my paper trading I lost 10 at the end of the game and if another goal had gone in I would have won a tenner.

Better Option

What I should have done was to have greened up the over 3.5 – I think I could have got a guaranteed profit of 120 approximately and still had the money to come in from the 0 – 3 score.

Paper trading, when you are learning a new technique is a really good idea.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Footy Money Maker Podcast

It has bee an while since I did a Wizardgold Podcast but the time is now and in this podcast I talk about the Footy Money Maker system for trading on football games in Betfair or BetDaq, which ever bet exchange you prefer. In the podcast I talk about what you have to look out for and why it is that I do not recommend the Football Cash Generator.

What do you need to look out for?

The settings of the system are so variable that you still have to know what you are doing even when you have all the information from the spreadsheet that determines what you should do .

• How much should you place on the lay bet to start the trade off? 
• Should you use the insurance bet?
• What should you do if things go wrong during the game? Do you trade out to a smaller loss or leave it to run?
• How does the implied chance of success found in the odds compare to the true percentage of the odds as found in the stats? We are talking value bet here.
• Are you getting a value bet that will really make you money long term?
• What can you do to protect your betting bank. Number one – use the Footy Money Maker instead of the Football Cash Generator.
• How can you be sure that you have chosen the correct games for this type of trading?

There are places online like soccerstats. com that has stats a plenty, get in there and use the numbers to guide you. These are all important questions you should be asking yourself before you get yourself stuck in  with the technique .

The Basics of how it works

Simple – you lay the draw at the start of the game and back the draw after the first goal goes in – to green up. So long as the favourite team scores first the odds will have changed enough that you can do the hedging bet.

Greening up is simply hedging the first bet to lock in a profit. Like I said the odds will be different – in this case higher and you bet with a different amount depending on the difference in the odds between the first and the second bet. You can do this manually so that you have the right amount by trial and error or use the Footy Money Maker spreadsheet to give you the correct amount.

Or you can use software like BetAngel where you just click on the Green up button.
I have tested the Football Cash Generator spreadsheet and it surely has some flaws, so I have constructed an improved version which I am calling the Footy Money Maker. It does the same thing but with betting bank protection dictating the size of the initial bet. This is so that you are able to continue when you hit that nil nil score line, as you certainly will at some point in time.

The Footy Money Maker also gives the you correct assessment of what percentage is your winnings in relation to the amount you risked during the trade. When you start with a bet on the lay side then the important figure is your liability and not the amount you had as a stake.
There are a lot of variables in the system set up and because of this the only way that you can say whether it is any good or not is by using it (paper trading to start with of course ) to try and work out if it will make money or not . I would advise you to give it a thorough testing with the settings you think will make you money. Refining it as you go.

You have to note that this is a trading technique and not a betting or gambling thing. There is risk with it but the idea it that it is a managed risk based on probability and proper mathematics. I do not encourage anyone to take up gambling and throwing money away on chance events. Betting is a mugs game and the question you have to ask yourself is. Have you ever seen a bookie riding a bicycle?

Have I made money with it?

I have actually used FCG with real cash and made money with it . I have to say that I realised that I was lucky with it, and didn’t hit a nil nil scoreline while I was using it.
Only now that I have created the Footy Money Maker would I again use the system for real with my hard earned cash.

Trading the under 2.5 goals

I have been working the under 2.5 goals today alongside the Football Cash Generator / Footy Money Maker strategy. Today I had a small loss on the Footy Money Maker but had a win yesterday so the loss was only €2.71 overall on that method. To make op for there only being a few games suitable for the Football Cash Generator. I thought I would go with the unders on the West Brom vs Manchester City game.

So with the under 2.5 goals betting on Betfair in the West Brom vs Manchester City game I started with €60 on the under 2.5 at odds of 2.00 which were good odds to work with. The first goal went in at 20 minutes but I was all out of it at 15 minutes.

The best software to work the unders with is the excellent BetAngel which has just got a big upgrade and also has Soccer Mystic built in to it. You can use the ladder interface to do what I did today on the Liverpool vs Chelsea game. I put on €60 at the start of the game and laid off €10 at a time as the odds came down in the first minutes of the game. By about 7 minutes in I had reduced my liability to next to nothing and before 10 minutes I was greened up.

I started off by laying off a tenner at a time until the liability was down to €20 then changed the stake on the ladder to a fiver. Putting a fiver on the lay side as the money became available until I had a green up situation. Torres scored at 11 minutes and I was happy to be all finished with the game for trading.

When things go well like this it really is a whole load of fun to be making money with BetAngel, I really must delve into BetAngel more because it has so many features in it that many don’t know about let alone dive into and make use of. For example I have never used the Excel integration for triggered bets.

This evening there are a few Carling games on Manchester United vs Wolverhampton, Leicester vs West Bom and Birmingham vs Brentford. Now the funny thing with cup games is that they are unpredictable and perhaps not the games that you should consider for trading on. The little teams like Brentford will have fire in their blood playing at a Premiership venue and strange things do sometimes happen. We have all seen those ‘Giant Killer’ headlines in the news papers.

I might still look at the Manchester United game against Wolves seeing as it is two Premiership teams and possibly less susceptible to shock scorelines. That could be one for the Footy Money Maker or maybe even to use with the under 2.5 goals market, seeing as Man U and not scoring too soon in games lately.

Not been using this for a while because I have been working on other things but I reckoned that this Madrid game could be just the job for the NAC system of betting. NAC means nearly all covered and you have a combination of bets on a game and don’t have to do much until the third goal goes in. I watched a video explaining this method again earlier today and I think it is interesting.

Here is a picture of the bets to do this game.

I decided not to go with the 1-2 scoreline as I thought it quite unlikely that Santander would manage to do that in Madrid. After eleven minutes the first goal has gone in and all is going to plan. In fact as I am writing this Madrid scored again at 16 minutes into the game. There could easily be a glut of goals in this game.

I will probably lose my stake on the under 2.5 goals but I will win hopefully on the over 3.5 goals. I will have to decide what to do when the 3rd goal goes in. In the video I saw the trader put some more money on the correct score of 2-1. Maybe on this game I need a bet on the 3 -0 scoreline too.

This is what it looks like after that bet on the 3-0

Don’t forget to get your hands on the excellent BetAngel if you are serious about trading on Betfair. It now includes Tennis trader and more importantly Soccer Mystic as part of the deal. Soccer Mystic is very useful to see how the odds might change as time goes by in a game and goals are scored.

Third goal scored

This is with a lay bet on the over 3.5 to green it up

So we have +51.22 – 28.73 – 15.74 = 6.75 if there are 4 goals or more

If it were to stay at 3-0 then there would be 34 to add to the profit? Let us see what happens…..