It depends on what you are doing of course.

If you are trading on the under 2.5 goals then you should choose a game that has odds of 1.90 or more on the under 2.5 side of the market. Doesn’t have to be exact but around that is good. If it is much lower than that, then you might find that the odds don’t move quick enough  in the usual direction as you would like at the start of the game. The odds will reflect to a certain extent the probability of how many goals there could be in the game, so if you start with odds of 2.30 on the unders then the market seems to think there could be a lot of goals in the game and although it could fall quicker because it has more to fall, it good just mean that there is going to be an early goal and you will not have time to trade out / green up.

Also there is the concept of value of the odds overall. If the probability of it being under 2.5 goals is 55%, the Premiership stats show that as the probability of that happening through the season, then the odds of 1.90 would give you a profit of €4.50 if you just did 100 bets of €1.

If you did 100 bets with odds of 1.80 with the same market then you would probably lose €1

OK so that is a quick look at the under 2.5 goals. What about if you are matching bets?

The first bet if it is a qualifying bet can be with what ever odds the Terms and conditions will allow, eg. there might be a minimum of 1.5. The idea is to lose as little money as possible, normally the odds at the Bookmaker will be lower at the bookie than at Betfair. For example 3.00 at the bookie you may find 3.20 at Betfair. I did once get a trade without a loss. The odds at Betfair was a little lower. That does not happen often though. On the Manchester vs Chelsea Champions League final I got 3.20 on both sides. The only loss was due to the commission at Betfair.

I try to have the cash end up on the Betfair side as many times as possible so I choose odds that reflect that possibility such as odds higher than 3.30. I often went for the draw at the bookie and laid off the same at Betfair. Home wins happen about 46% of the time and a draw only 26%. So there is more chance that I will win at Betfair. The matched betting is risk free but it is so much easier if the money is over in Betfair. Easier to repatriate to my bank.

Tags: Under.25goals, Betting, value bet, football, soccer, winning,