Hello and welcome to the Footy Trader
Lets get right down to it and tell you about my trading this evening. I chose a couple of games, one was Chelsea vs Olympiakos which turned out to be a poor choice and the other was Porto vs Schalke which would have been better but I was kind of tied up with getting things sorted out with the Chelsea game.
I opened my position at the start of the game and I use BinarySoft BDI betting software and I bought in with a back bet at the start of the game. I was disappointed to see that at 5 minutes and goal had gone in and spoilt my best laid plans. I like to trade the first ten minutes of a game and be greened up and out. The main part of the plan is to make 1% of my betting bank when I trade. To spread the risk I had the 2 games going and as soon as I could I would be all out of it and ready to sit down and watch some TV. The longer you are sitting waiting in a game to have the odds drop to where you want them to drop to the more risky it is.
I should have explained first of all that the market I like to trade is the under / over goals markets. I start off with the under 2.5 goals market and move on to the 3.5 and 4.5 goals if I need to. The reason I like the under 2.5 is because it is so predictable. So long as there is no goal scored the the odds ALWAYS go down with the passing of minutes in a game. You only have to see a graph of a few games or a lot of games to see how it works. Or better still you can buy Soccer Mystic from BetAngel and see the future. That piece of software is able to predict with fair accuracy how the odds will drop during a game. It can also be updated with goals that have happened and give you an idea of how long you may have to wait until the odds will move in your favour again.
OK Back to the Chelsea game, Ballack scored at five minutes and I had not managed to green up. I started with 0.2 per tick in BinarySoft and I had sold part of that position so I had at least got partly greened up. I decided to buy in with another 0.2 and so my position was 0.3 in total. The plan was to sell off after about 5 minutes or so. I had part of the position sold (another 0.1) when the second goal went in at 25 minutes and I didn’t have too much of a liability left. Then just as half time approached I decided to finish up on that market and leave a loss of €3.41. Turned out to be a good move as Chelsea scored the third goal within a couple of minutes after the start of the second half.
While I was dealing with the under 2.5 goal market though I was looking at the under 3.5 and the under 4.5 goals markets too. I bought into the under 3.5 goals just after the first goal because just after a goal is a great time to buy in as the odds tumble for the first 5 minutes after a goal. If you don’t believe me , just look at the steep angle of the price graphs just after a goal. I managed to sell off part of that position before the 3rd goal and I just waited until I saw enough of a profit on the market to trade out.
I also moved to the under 4.5 goal market and traded part of it out at 70 minute of the game it was three nil to Chelsea and I wanted to see some profit from the game so I just let it run and put in an order to trade out at the price I wanted. I could have let it run and taken more form it but anything can happen in football and I was pleased to have traded from a potential loss due to an early goal to have a small but sure profit.
Here is a screen shot from the BinarySoft Betfair trading software to show how it looked at the end of the game on the under 4.5 goals market. You can see that if the match ends with more than 4 goals I get 2.70 and if under I get 2.68. That’s what we call being greened up. Nothing to do with a desire to vomit……
OK that’s a first post on here and look out for more to come. The other software I recommend is BetIE which is great because it has a learning mode and you can try strategies out before you risk any cash in a betting bank
