I made €89.66 on the Sunderland game then €18 on the next game total winnings of 107.66 then I did one more game and that was Liverpool Stoke and would you know it there was a nil nil draw. So that took €239 from the profit leaving a deficit of €131.34 loss from the betting bank I started the day with of €250 leaving €118.66 left to play with in the betting bank.

Not a good start and what are the lessons to be learned? Was the insurance bet set high enough? Was the lay bet too high for the odds that were available? Should I have left the West Ham game run longer so that I could have taken more profit from it?

To start with the West Ham game was the correct decision, greening up when there is a goal and it is nearly to the target level is good because we can’t see into the future.

With the insurance bet I am wondering if the size should be adjusted so that the ratio of the profit target hits a certain percentage, in particular to the level of 25% as per the Spreadsheet. I am going to look at the odds required to get the target when the first goal goes in when the insurance bet is increased. Obviously to get a higher target profit then the odds needed will be higher.

Definitely there is some tweaking to be done. What I need to know is what level of strike rate I can expect. How many times to I need to win to cover the losses that happen from time to time.

Then again this was only the first day of this test and maybe I was just unluck getting a nil nil so soon in the test. As I said only 8% of games end with no score.

The other question about the level of the lay bet is that it should fit in with a betting bank money management system. The liability should not be so high that just one or two losses in a row, which could happen, will clean you out so that you can’t continue with out adding to the betting bank.

Now I will work with what is left and adjust the strategy to suit the smaller betting bank.