The Footy Trader

How to do some dutching of the correct score market using BetAngel. Also are you aware that you can use BetAngel for Betdaq for free at the moment. Well worth a look I can tell you.

Learn from professionals how to achieve spectacular results on Betting Exchanges!

Betting exchanges have revolutionised betting markets and here’s a great opportunity to learn from professionals how to really use them. The Betting Exchange Academy was created to bring together in one place the knowledge, tools and support you need to successfully bet or trade online with Betfair.

Hosted at top quality venues, you will learn the secrets of how to trade and profit on betting exchanges from leading exchange users. Our accredited coaches will demonstrate specialised, easy to use strategies and tactics tailored specifically for use on the exchanges.

Check this video I have made to show how to use Betdaq Assistant with the Betdaq under 2.5 goals market. I did this with the Southend vs Chelsea game. I don’t really recommend using FA Cup games for trading but it worked out OK anyway. I even timed the greening up really well a couple of minutes before the first goal was scored.

I have been trying out the Betdaq Assistant software from Gruss and I am very pleased with it. It has been created using Adobe Air which makes it cross platform. Seeing as I am a Mac user this is the icing on the cake with a cherry on top for me. You can also use it on Linux and even Windows if you are crazy enough to use Windows.

It makes sense, as I have said before that there is no point in trading against the statistical information. When you are looking at a game to work with you should give yourself the better chance of success by reading the stats that are real for the market you are looking at. For example with the Premiership and the under 2.5 goal market.

Look at the image of the current stats as taken from the Soccerstats site only a couple of minutes ago. Games that finish under 2.5 goals is the number to look at. 46% of all of the 149 games played so far ended under 2.5 goals.

Now lets go to Betcalc and see what odds we need to get to have value on a trade. You have to enter the 46% and the look at the odds required to give you a profit on a back bet.

You can clearly see that you will have to put in the back bet at more than 2.12 to get value. If you place 100 of 1 Euro bets at that price in that market with those stats you will win 0.28 overall.

So it is going to make sense to try and get odds like that when you trade. OK lets look and see what odds are available now in Betdaq. There is a game on between Fulham and Manchester City today and the odds on the under 2.5 goals is 1.77. If we put 1.77 into the Betcalc value calculator and the 46% likleyhood of there being under 2.5 goals as pwer the stats. It does not look good. After 100 bets like that with the stake at 1 Euro then you are likely to have lost 18.58 Euro. (or pounds or shekels or whatever currency you work with)

So what can we do to try and increase the chances of getting better odds?

The odds are not static during the game which is why we can trade on a game. Buy in at one price and sell at a bettter price and be greened up to win whatever the result. You will see that after a goal is scored the odds will rise dramatically. So you can trade on the rise going up or on the drop in the odds either before or after the goal is scored.

• So at the beginning of a match you can back the under 2.5 goals and as no goals are scored then you can trade out when the odds drop.
• Or you could lay the under 2.5 before the goal and trade on the rise when the odds rise when the goal is scored.
• Or trade on the drop in the odds after a goal is scored. Looking at the graphs from the betting exchange you will see a steep curve downwards usually after the goal

The method I would use is the trading at the start of a game and look at that stats for the possibility of goals happening in the first 10 or 15 minutes of the game. Also the fact that the drop of the odds after a goal is quite steep is also alluring for trading. I would use both of these strategies.

Don’t take my word for it though get your hands on BetIE the betting software which has a learning mode and try it for yourself. Have the back bet in there and either use the built in automatic hedging or use the trading ladder to place the bets manually.

What you might do is place the back bet at that start of the game and trade out part of the bet after 5 minutes and then the rest of it at 10 minutes. That way you remove some of the liability and capture some profit of the trade. The longer a game goes without a goal then the higher the probability of a goal being scored. I mean that is what both teams are trying to do, put the ball in the back of the net.

One of the nice things about BetIE is that there are no monthly charges. You just buy the software and thats it. most of the other softwares charge per month. Those are more for the professional traders that need fancier tools. BetIE does have a good tool set though and more than enough to the small betting exchange trader.

If you are more of a betting professional then I can highly recommend BetAngel or SoccerMystic for those with a football bias.

I have just been checking the stats on the Soccerstats site and in particular the under 2.5 goals stats. As you know I believe the getting value with your bets is important. So I took the data from Soccerstats and put it in to Betcalc.com which has a value calculator. The reason I did this was because the stats this season indicate more goals and more games where the final score is more than 2.5 goals. Last season I remember it being around 48%.

With 48% you needed to get odd of at least 2.10 to have a value bet and now with 43% as the statistic for games under2.5 goals you need odds of 2.35 to be getting value.

I don’t think that the odds for the unders on Betfair or Betdaq has reflected this change in the numbers, so that is not such a good thing. You need to be getting value because if thing do go wrong and you have to leave a trade as a straight bet then you want to know that you have the value.

If you get bets at odds of 2.30 on the unders on 43% in the stats then after one hundred bets you will have lost 1.10 pounds or Euro or whatever. If you get odds of 2.35 then you should make 1.05 Euro or pounds.

Lets look at the odds available in the premiership games on today

Chelsea v Newcastle – 2.38
Aston Villa v Man Utd – 1.98
Liverpool v Fulham – 2.04
Man City v Arsenal – 2.28
Middlesborough v Bolton – 1.82
Portsmouth v Hull – 1.82
Stoke v West Brom – 1.87

So you can see that in most of these games there are poor odds where getting a value bet is concerned. I think also that this can affect how fast the odds change at the start of a game too. Obviously the higher the odds the faster they will fall when five, ten, fifteen or twenty minutes have gone in the game and no goals have been scored.

What you could do is to look at the odds after a goal has been scored. Often the odds go up fairly high and then have a sharp fall for the next five or ten minutes of the game. It could be a better strategy than taking the poor odds at the start of the game. All you have to worry about then is the quick equaliser goal. I dodn’t know what the stats are for that occurance but it should be slim enough that the overall strategy will be a winner.

There are a few out there so what would I recommend?

Kind of depends on what you want to do. Here are a few suggestions

With the Euro championships coming up you might want to consider the excellent dedicated to football Soccer Mystic. I used it for a while and I was impressed. I expected it to be good coming as it does from the BetAngel stable.

As you know I am a Mac user and for that reason I like to use Binarysoft BDI for trading. It has a different sort of way of working which seems strange at first but actually works very well. Full ladder interface and is pretty good for trading.

In BetAngel you have the full ladder interface too and besides that there is a whole host of things that you can do with BetAngel and it really is the one for the professionals. You can even connect it up to Excel to make work as a Betting Bot. You really should go and get the trial cut down version and also try out the full version. I think BetAngel have a nice offer to try it for 20 days very cheaply.

There is also the Racing  traders software and you can buy use of that by buying minutes. Actually a good way to try it out. Good for trading also.

I did try another MarketFeeder Pro – Stunning Conditional Betting Technologies and it had a sort of scripting language built in and was quite impressive in what you could make it do. Basically a roll your own bot in the software.

Another software I have had a lot of use from is the super BetIE. One of the good things about it is the learning mode which is nothing short of brilliant for testing out strategies without risking your betting bank capital. Also this my suit people that like to pay once for some software and not have monthly fees. Good for horse racing and you ge help from Dave and Nessie that run BetIE thrown in.

Why not try them all out and then choose which one suits you and your style of trading best.

Tags: bettingsoftware, soccer mystic, betAngel, Racing trader, BetIE

Everything was looking great with the game that looked like I would get all the cash into Betfair but There just had to be a goal in the last minute. Valladolid couldn’t hold on to the 1 – 0 lead that that they had for most of the game.

So the next part of the plan is the bets I have on the Match odds of the Manchester vs Chelsea game on Wednesday. I took quite a while looking for a game with the right odds and eventually got 3.20 on SkyBet and 3.20 on Betfair. Normally there is a bit of a gap between the odds and you lose a little in the translation as it were. There is only a small loss with this trade.

I think if the bet goes the Side of SkyBet I will try for a withdrawal direct to my bank account. I don’t really want to do that – I could have done it with the 150 Euro I had there but I have a funny feeling that there will be bank charges to deal with.

I suppose I should be philosophical about this because it is money that I got easy and is just cutting into the profits I have made in the last couple of months. It is just that once I have the money in my grubby little paws I want to hold on to it. It really is all part of the game though. I will have to keep this in mind when I start on the next round of trading.

This one is for the Spurs vs Portsmouth game.

And here is the dutch for the Villa game.

I used BetIE to set up the Dutch. Great software that you only have to pay for once, no monthly fees and has a leaning mode so you an try thing out without risk to the betting bank. For professional trading and you need a ladder interface and excel contectability then you should get BetAngel which is for the professionals. It does just about everything. BetAngel has a free version that gives you basic one click betting and is good for greening up small amounts.

The plan of action will be to trade the under 2.5 goals market and also to set up a dutch on the correct score. Newcastle will be looking to get a win under the hand of Kevin Keegan. Not turning out the hero he was expected to be for the Toon Army. Newcastle have lost the last 4 away games and have not won for some time, 12 games to be exact. The scoreline forecast on Soccerstats.com is for over 2.5 goals.

Birmingham need a win  due to being a bit close to the relegation zone but Newcastle are only 2 places above I expect it will be a hard fought game.

Here is the screenshot of the correct score dutch first.

Here is the screenshot of the Match Odds dutched  for a home win and a draw. I have set this up in Learning mode  in BetIE so that I can try it out without risking the betting bank.

Here are 3 screen shots of the dutching of today’s games. At the moment the Fulham game is running but the it is still nil nil.

Fulham vs Everton

Wigan vs Bolton

Manchester City vs Spurs

All the dutches set up in BetIE – Betty the one click betting software

lets see how it works out…….

I have a friend that is introducing me to the delights of trading tennis. Thanks Arno. I had a go yesterday on Betfair with the tennis with mixed results. I should have used the learning mode really in BetIE but decided to try it out with BetAngel and just use small trade amounts.

The first one I had a go with I traded very conservatively and took a small profit when it presented itself. If I had waited a little longer I could have had more. But easy does it when learning eh !! Then I tried the Tipsarevic match and we didn’t get that right and I traded out for a 6 euro loss. Could be a good idea to use a stop loss on some of these games.

On the subject of using a stop loss I am not sure I like them because you are saying yes give me a loss if you have it set up wrong. There are times when the odds go the opposite direction to what you would like and trigger the stop loss the head back in the right direction later to where you could have made some money. A good use of a stop loss would be where you already have some profit in the ladder interface of your betting software and set a stop loss so that if it does go south you catch it before if goes into minus numbers. You can set a stop loss in BetIE, BetAngel and also in BinarySoft.

Back to the tennis – Later I trade on the Nadal game. he was favourite to win but the odds were definitely value at 1.37 and got better when he lost the first set. I traded during that first set and made back part of my loss from the previous match. I could have had some trust on Nadal to fight he way to a win but I left it and did some other things until the footy came available in the evening. But when players like Federer get beat as he did on Monday, then it shows that anything can happen with tennis, besides with this first time trading tennis discretion and safety is the order of the day.

Champions League Football

I was watching the Manchester United game on the TV and I traded on it to make back some more of the tennis loss and I also had a small trade on the Arsenal game. I ended the day slightly down, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. On the Arsenal game I traded out early because it was about 15 -20 minutes into the game when I got in and the odds seemed slow to move for most of the time I was looking. I wanted to sit and watch the Man United game also so getting out with a small profit was the thing to do.

Soccer Mystic is great software for trading the football, I love it when I can see what is likely to happen with the odds in the price predictor. Sometimes you have to give it a minute or two to get the information resolved to be able to present the graph of how it expects the prices to move but it doesn’t usually take too long. I am still not keen on all of the windows you have to work with but then I am running the software within a virtual machine on my Mac and perhaps if you have more screen space it is not so bad.

Horse Racing

I have just spent 10 minutes setting up the bets in BetIE with the tips from RacingPlace using the 80/20 method of staking. I will check it late this evening after the races are finished at Wolverhampton and post up the verdict tomorrow.