It makes sense, as I have said before that there is no point in trading against the statistical information. When you are looking at a game to work with you should give yourself the better chance of success by reading the stats that are real for the market you are looking at. For example with the Premiership and the under 2.5 goal market.
Look at the image of the current stats as taken from the Soccerstats site only a couple of minutes ago. Games that finish under 2.5 goals is the number to look at. 46% of all of the 149 games played so far ended under 2.5 goals.
Now lets go to Betcalc and see what odds we need to get to have value on a trade. You have to enter the 46% and the look at the odds required to give you a profit on a back bet.
You can clearly see that you will have to put in the back bet at more than 2.12 to get value. If you place 100 of 1 Euro bets at that price in that market with those stats you will win 0.28 overall.
So it is going to make sense to try and get odds like that when you trade. OK lets look and see what odds are available now in Betdaq. There is a game on between Fulham and Manchester City today and the odds on the under 2.5 goals is 1.77. If we put 1.77 into the Betcalc value calculator and the 46% likleyhood of there being under 2.5 goals as pwer the stats. It does not look good. After 100 bets like that with the stake at 1 Euro then you are likely to have lost 18.58 Euro. (or pounds or shekels or whatever currency you work with)
So what can we do to try and increase the chances of getting better odds?
The odds are not static during the game which is why we can trade on a game. Buy in at one price and sell at a bettter price and be greened up to win whatever the result. You will see that after a goal is scored the odds will rise dramatically. So you can trade on the rise going up or on the drop in the odds either before or after the goal is scored.
- So at the beginning of a match you can back the under 2.5 goals and as no goals are scored then you can trade out when the odds drop.
- Or you could lay the under 2.5 before the goal and trade on the rise when the odds rise when the goal is scored.
- Or trade on the drop in the odds after a goal is scored. Looking at the graphs from the betting exchange you will see a steep curve downwards usually after the goal
The method I would use is the trading at the start of a game and look at that stats for the possibility of goals happening in the first 10 or 15 minutes of the game. Also the fact that the drop of the odds after a goal is quite steep is also alluring for trading. I would use both of these strategies.
Don’t take my word for it though get your hands on BetIE the betting software which has a learning mode and try it for yourself. Have the back bet in there and either use the built in automatic hedging or use the trading ladder to place the bets manually.
What you might do is place the back bet at that start of the game and trade out part of the bet after 5 minutes and then the rest of it at 10 minutes. That way you remove some of the liability and capture some profit of the trade. The longer a game goes without a goal then the higher the probability of a goal being scored. I mean that is what both teams are trying to do, put the ball in the back of the net.
One of the nice things about BetIE is that there are no monthly charges. You just buy the software and thats it. most of the other softwares charge per month. Those are more for the professional traders that need fancier tools. BetIE does have a good tool set though and more than enough to the small betting exchange trader.
If you are more of a betting professional then I can highly recommend BetAngel or SoccerMystic for those with a football bias.
