The Footy Trader

Would be nice for Rangers to lose – Well me me anyway. I don’t suppose Ally McCoist will be too pleased though, not Walter Smith either.

I will still make 45 euro on the competition because I have the free 65 euro laid off. I am not sure I want to wait a month to get my hands on it. If Fiorentina get a goal I will be tempted to look at the odds and see if I will make enough to be able to trade out early.

If I did that and Rangers made a late come back in the game and then went on to win the competition I could be quids in on both sides of the position I have right now.

I traded on the under 2.5 goals on the game and traded out at about 25 minutes so that I could take my place on the sofa to watch the game.

Tags: Rangers, Fiorentina, UEFA cup, trading, Matched betting

Chelsea battled hard against Liverpool in the semi final and took there luck  to get to the final. I would have liked to have seen the game on the TV but no joy here. I didn’t even get to trade on the game as I was late getting to look at the game in BinarySoft BDI. The match was already 25 minutes old and the odds would not have given value.

Good job I didn’t try it on Betfair, seeing as there was a goal at 33 minutes and that would have caught me out in my favoured under 2.5 goals market.

Don’t forget that BetAngel is a professional type betting software that does everything apart from make the tea. Excellent if you want to be the bookmaker of link up with an excel spreadsheet. I wish there was a Mac version….

Great for English football to see two English clubs in the Champions League final

Tags: ManchesterUnited, Chelsea, Liverpool, binarysoft, under 2.5 goals market. Betfair, gambling, trading

But I can’t as the Betfair API seems to be down. I can get into Betfair using BinarysoftBDI but not with BetIE. A bit strange but there you go. I would have thought that BinarySoft uses the API also but it is the only thing that I can think of.

I did have a trade on the Betis vs Barcelona game last night. I profited by more than the 1% target of the betting bank despite the fact that I traded on the under 3.5 goals when it was 0-2 and the game ended with Barcelona losing 2-3. My teams were doing well up to that point. Birmingham winning 3-1 against Man City and Villa losing to the other Manchester team. I have to be happy at Villa losing because I went to a Villa game once and they all were cheering when the score of the concurrent Birmingham City game showed that City was losing.

I was using BinarySoft BDI to trade the Barcelona game which has some nice enhancements lately. The real time charting looks very nice. I will talk some more about the usefuness of it when I have had a chance to play with it some more. Here is a screenshot of the Charting…. As you can see you have a line for the last traded price. The blue area is the best buy price available and the ind area the best sell price available. The VC I think is the info about the volume being matched and is shown as a bar or a spikes from the bottom of the chart.

The game is 20 minutes old and still no goals. I traded out at 17 minutes. Here are some screen shots of the trades on BinarySoft to show how I did it.

7 minutes into the  game

17 minutes into the game

There you go totally greened up and will get paid as soon as the game is over. I like to use BinarySoft because I can use it native on my Mac – It will work on other systems too. For trading with a full ladder interface I find it just great.  Just have to get used to the binary nature of the software. It is pretty easy really with 100% and that has happened and 0% if the event doesn’t happen.
Can be used on multiple choice markets as well as markets that are totally binary like the under 2.5 goals. So if you are working with the match odds for example and backing the draw and you lay off later to green up, it will green up across the 3 options, home win, draw and away win.

For software that you can use to do other stuff and have ALL the bells and whistles, making a book for example or dutching the try out BetAngel, Soccer Mystic or BetIE. Each have pluses and minuses depending on what you are doing with your trading.

So far looking at the results we have profits of 65 Euro for the day based on an exposure of 100 on each dutch. If you have a look at the pictures of the dutches I set up in BetIE you will see how the figures were set up. There is still one Premiership game running and that is the Wigan vs Arsenal.

It is still nil nil and I didn’t include the 0-0 scoreline in the dutch so I would like to see a goal from one side or the other.

All in all the correct score trial is going very well. I will be interested to see how it looks in a months time. At the moment the profit overall is €594 but that will drop by 35 Euro if there is no score in the Wigan vs Arsenal game.

All the fun of the F.A. Cup

Earlier I had a disaster time with the Middlesborough vs Cardiff FA Cup game. I had used up some of the cash in WBX to back the overs and on Betfair I backed the unders. Then of course the goals started to go in after the second goal at half time I decided to do some trading out of the unders on Betfair. I had the game on the TV and I thought there was a good change of another goal. Thinking didn’t do much any favours and in the end I lost the money on Betfair and also on WBX. So you can see that being clever wasn’t such a good idea when I had a risk free bet and all I had to to was watch and wait. I amaze myself sometimes.

Now I have another risk free bet set up on the Bristol Rovers vs West Bromich Albion I used a tenner of a free bet on which the stake is not returned. So if it goes over 2.5 goals I win £11.25 on WBX and if it stays under then I win €12.15 minus the 5% commission on Betfair. I am not really bothered which one wins for me, but I will be looking closely at the odds on offer at 89 – 90 minutes to see if there is a chance of getting paid from both if 2 goals have already been scored.

Lets get right down to it and tell you about my trading this evening. I chose a couple of games, one was Chelsea vs Olympiakos which turned out to be a poor choice and the other was Porto vs Schalke which would have been better but I was kind of tied up with getting things sorted out with the Chelsea game.

I opened my position at the start of the game and I use BinarySoft BDI betting software and I bought in with a back bet at the start of the game. I was disappointed to see that at 5 minutes and goal had gone in and spoilt my best laid plans. I like to trade the first ten minutes of a game and be greened up and out. The main part of the plan is to make 1% of my betting bank when I trade. To spread the risk I had the 2 games going and as soon as I could I would be all out of it and ready to sit down and watch some TV. The longer you are sitting waiting in a game to have the odds drop to where you want them to drop to the more risky it is.

I should have explained first of all that the market I like to trade is the under / over goals markets. I start off with the under 2.5 goals market and move on to the 3.5 and 4.5 goals if I need to. The reason I like the under 2.5 is because it is so predictable. So long as there is no goal scored the the odds ALWAYS go down with the passing of minutes in a game. You only have to see a graph of a few games or a lot of games to see how it works. Or better still you can buy Soccer Mystic from BetAngel and see the future. That piece of software is able to predict with fair accuracy how the odds will drop during a game. It can also be updated with goals that have happened and give you an idea of how long you may have to wait until the odds will move in your favour again.

OK Back to the Chelsea game, Ballack scored at five minutes and I had not managed to green up. I started with 0.2 per tick in BinarySoft and I had sold part of that position so I had at least got partly greened up. I decided to buy in with another 0.2 and so my position was 0.3 in total. The plan was to sell off after about 5 minutes or so. I had part of the position sold (another 0.1) when the second goal went in at 25 minutes and I didn’t have too much of a liability left. Then just as half time approached I decided to finish up on that market and leave a loss of €3.41. Turned out to be a good move as Chelsea scored the third goal within a couple of minutes after the start of the second half.

While I was dealing with the under 2.5 goal market though I was looking at the under 3.5 and the under 4.5 goals markets too. I bought into the under 3.5 goals just after the first goal because just after a goal is a great time to buy in as the odds tumble for the first 5 minutes after a goal. If you don’t believe me , just look at the steep angle of the price graphs just after a goal. I managed to sell off part of that position before the 3rd goal and I just waited until I saw enough of a profit on the market to trade out.

I also moved to the under 4.5 goal market and traded part of it out at 70 minute of the game it was three nil to Chelsea and I wanted to see some profit from the game so I just let it run and put in an order to trade out at the price I wanted. I could have let it run and taken more form it but anything can happen in football and I was pleased to have traded from a potential loss due to an early goal to have a small but sure profit.

Here is a screen shot from the BinarySoft Betfair trading software to show how it looked at the end of the game on the under 4.5 goals market. You can see that if the match ends with more than 4 goals I get 2.70 and if under I get 2.68. That’s what we call being greened up. Nothing to do with a desire to vomit……

OK that’s a first post on here and look out for more to come. The other software I recommend is BetIE which is great because it has a learning mode and you can try strategies out before you risk any cash in a betting bank

I have a friend that is introducing me to the delights of trading tennis. Thanks Arno. I had a go yesterday on Betfair with the tennis with mixed results. I should have used the learning mode really in BetIE but decided to try it out with BetAngel and just use small trade amounts.

The first one I had a go with I traded very conservatively and took a small profit when it presented itself. If I had waited a little longer I could have had more. But easy does it when learning eh !! Then I tried the Tipsarevic match and we didn’t get that right and I traded out for a 6 euro loss. Could be a good idea to use a stop loss on some of these games.

On the subject of using a stop loss I am not sure I like them because you are saying yes give me a loss if you have it set up wrong. There are times when the odds go the opposite direction to what you would like and trigger the stop loss the head back in the right direction later to where you could have made some money. A good use of a stop loss would be where you already have some profit in the ladder interface of your betting software and set a stop loss so that if it does go south you catch it before if goes into minus numbers. You can set a stop loss in BetIE, BetAngel and also in BinarySoft.

Back to the tennis – Later I trade on the Nadal game. he was favourite to win but the odds were definitely value at 1.37 and got better when he lost the first set. I traded during that first set and made back part of my loss from the previous match. I could have had some trust on Nadal to fight he way to a win but I left it and did some other things until the footy came available in the evening. But when players like Federer get beat as he did on Monday, then it shows that anything can happen with tennis, besides with this first time trading tennis discretion and safety is the order of the day.

Champions League Football

I was watching the Manchester United game on the TV and I traded on it to make back some more of the tennis loss and I also had a small trade on the Arsenal game. I ended the day slightly down, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. On the Arsenal game I traded out early because it was about 15 -20 minutes into the game when I got in and the odds seemed slow to move for most of the time I was looking. I wanted to sit and watch the Man United game also so getting out with a small profit was the thing to do.

Soccer Mystic is great software for trading the football, I love it when I can see what is likely to happen with the odds in the price predictor. Sometimes you have to give it a minute or two to get the information resolved to be able to present the graph of how it expects the prices to move but it doesn’t usually take too long. I am still not keen on all of the windows you have to work with but then I am running the software within a virtual machine on my Mac and perhaps if you have more screen space it is not so bad.

Horse Racing

I have just spent 10 minutes setting up the bets in BetIE with the tips from RacingPlace using the 80/20 method of staking. I will check it late this evening after the races are finished at Wolverhampton and post up the verdict tomorrow.

I got the game 5 minutes late but thought I would give it a go anyway and wouldn’t you know it the market suspended before the price had a chance to move much. Decided to put in another buy at the new odds so that I would move to a profit quicker so long as no more goals went in. I just left it then and was able to trade out about 15 20 mins later to a small profit. The second goal went in at sixty minutes and I have just spotted that Liverpool have scored again. Gerards complaints about how well they have been playing lately seems to have had a positive effect on the team.

I used BinarySoft for trading today. I only have a small betting bank so I started with a 0.2 size of a back or buy to start the position on the under 2.5 goals and I put in the same again just after the first goal. It didn’t take too long to be able to trade out for a small profit despite the goal going in at 12 minutes. I would have preferred to have got in at the start of the game and take the couple of ticks movement an be greened up at 10 minutes.

As I was writing this another goal went in, this time one for Bolton, but it will be a little late with only 10 minutes left to the end of the game.

I set up some dutches for the correct scores using BetIE yesterday and got it right with all eight games that were being played I put 100 euro on each bet and the profit at the end of the was 208 euro. From my spreadsheet I have set up to record these type of bets I have profit of 561 euro from 25 games.

To set up those types of dutching bets you have to use BetIE or the BetAngel Professional You can also do the dutching in Soccer Mystic. But I didn’t have Windows running on my Mac and didn’t want to start it either so I stayed with BinarySoft which was great for what I was doing.

Might trade on the Everton Portsmouth game which starts in half an hour too.

By the way I am not pleased with Betfair regards the way they want to charge more if you have more than 20 data request per second. It will mean that I will perhaps only be able to run one piece of software at one time so as not to get charged more, or I will have to limit the number of markets monitored in BinarySoft.

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The Newcastle vs Manchester United game was going to be a bit of a battle. But I messed up totally. I came to it late, the game was already running for 20 minutes and the first goal went in just after I placed my first back bet. I traded out to a loss on that then moved to the under 3.5 and late to the under 4.5 goals and I have had similar luck with all of them. The minimum loss was 0.45 and the largest was 32 on the under 4.5. I had just put in a back bet at about 77 minutes and Newcastle scored a goal. I would have traded out right after that because the back bet was bigger than I wanted to go with but Manchester scored again within a minute and blew the whole thing for me.

Must have been a wild game judging by the number of yellow cards given to the Newcastle players. Maybe I will get to see the game on Match of the Day this evening.

So it has not been a good day today and I should not have tried trading when I was still having to do things to finish off the party at the house. I just wiped out the free bets I got from Bwin and also the unders trading from the last week.

I will get more money in this week from some matched betting anyway, once I have sorted out the problem with the bank and the Cyber targeta.

I hope you all had a better time trading with BetAngel BetIE or BinarySoft than I did.

Last night I traded on the unders on Betfair in the Champions league and I recorded some of the action. I should have recorded more but I was just busy concentrating on making money. Before the games started I have greened up halfway to the 1% profit target for the day. When the games started I put in more trades and let them green up too. I made about 2.5% in the end and I was able to add a little to that total by putting in a late bet on the under 2.5 goals at about 83 minutes on the Arsenal game which was at nil nil, and stayed that way to the end. I traded on all of the games and made varying amounts. The game with less liquidity was the Sevilla game so I traded less on that one.

The way I worked it was to trade at the begining of the game and have my 1% profit in the bag, then add to it after a goal was scored. Fortunately the second goal in the Celtic vs Barcelona game was very quick and so I didn’t get caught out by it. I like to move to the under 3.5 goals to do the next trade if there is enough money on the market, nice to have a couple of goals safety for the trading. It is great to be able to set up trades on all 4 games and see them in the monitored markets list with the latest odds displayed along with all the other necessary information, like Last traded price, net position, whether I have unmatched bets and the current profit or loss.

I will be editing the recording of BinarySoft BDI that I made with live bets Thursday late in the day or on Friday as I have decided to go to Barcelona for the day. I don’t go there too often as I am not keen on big cities too much. But there is an art shop I want to visit and also a book shop, I am keen to buy myself a couple of good sketch books, and get back into drawing again. It has been too long since I was drawing things that’s for sure.

Even though I like BinarySoft BDI I still use BetAngel because it is the professionals choice if you want to do more than trade with a ladder interface. In BetAngel you can set up just about any scenario for making money including setting yourself as the bookmaker. BetAngel even works with Excel spreadsheet so you can have some really sophisticated triggered betting.

Due to the day out I will not get time to follow up on the 80/20 tips on the horses either. Today I was busy editing the Wizardcast 31 in which I showed some of the basic functions of BinarySoft BDI betting software. I like the software because it works native on my Mac and it has a full ladder for trading. It does take a little getting used to at first due to the binary nature of how it works and the odds being represented by nought to one hundred, instead of the Betfair odds. In this latest version you can see the equivalent Betfair odds as a tooltip when your hover over the Binary odds though and that makes it easier to work.

With BinarySoft BDI the closer you get to the event being realised the closer you get to 100. So if you buy a position on the under 2.5 goals , which is the same as a back bet, at binary 50 which is roughly 2.00 in Betfair odds, the closer the odds get to 100 the closer you are to winning the bet. You can buy at 56 (1.79) and sell at 58 (1.72) to make a profit trading in and out.