The Footy Trader

Would be nice for Rangers to lose – Well me me anyway. I don’t suppose Ally McCoist will be too pleased though, not Walter Smith either.

I will still make 45 euro on the competition because I have the free 65 euro laid off. I am not sure I want to wait a month to get my hands on it. If Fiorentina get a goal I will be tempted to look at the odds and see if I will make enough to be able to trade out early.

If I did that and Rangers made a late come back in the game and then went on to win the competition I could be quids in on both sides of the position I have right now.

I traded on the under 2.5 goals on the game and traded out at about 25 minutes so that I could take my place on the sofa to watch the game.

Tags: Rangers, Fiorentina, UEFA cup, trading, Matched betting

Chelsea battled hard against Liverpool in the semi final and took there luck  to get to the final. I would have liked to have seen the game on the TV but no joy here. I didn’t even get to trade on the game as I was late getting to look at the game in BinarySoft BDI. The match was already 25 minutes old and the odds would not have given value.

Good job I didn’t try it on Betfair, seeing as there was a goal at 33 minutes and that would have caught me out in my favoured under 2.5 goals market.

Don’t forget that BetAngel is a professional type betting software that does everything apart from make the tea. Excellent if you want to be the bookmaker of link up with an excel spreadsheet. I wish there was a Mac version….

Great for English football to see two English clubs in the Champions League final

Tags: ManchesterUnited, Chelsea, Liverpool, binarysoft, under 2.5 goals market. Betfair, gambling, trading

But I can’t as the Betfair API seems to be down. I can get into Betfair using BinarysoftBDI but not with BetIE. A bit strange but there you go. I would have thought that BinarySoft uses the API also but it is the only thing that I can think of.

I did have a trade on the Betis vs Barcelona game last night. I profited by more than the 1% target of the betting bank despite the fact that I traded on the under 3.5 goals when it was 0-2 and the game ended with Barcelona losing 2-3. My teams were doing well up to that point. Birmingham winning 3-1 against Man City and Villa losing to the other Manchester team. I have to be happy at Villa losing because I went to a Villa game once and they all were cheering when the score of the concurrent Birmingham City game showed that City was losing.

I was using BinarySoft BDI to trade the Barcelona game which has some nice enhancements lately. The real time charting looks very nice. I will talk some more about the usefuness of it when I have had a chance to play with it some more. Here is a screenshot of the Charting…. As you can see you have a line for the last traded price. The blue area is the best buy price available and the ind area the best sell price available. The VC I think is the info about the volume being matched and is shown as a bar or a spikes from the bottom of the chart.

The game is 20 minutes old and still no goals. I traded out at 17 minutes. Here are some screen shots of the trades on BinarySoft to show how I did it.

7 minutes into the  game

17 minutes into the game

There you go totally greened up and will get paid as soon as the game is over. I like to use BinarySoft because I can use it native on my Mac – It will work on other systems too. For trading with a full ladder interface I find it just great.  Just have to get used to the binary nature of the software. It is pretty easy really with 100% and that has happened and 0% if the event doesn’t happen.
Can be used on multiple choice markets as well as markets that are totally binary like the under 2.5 goals. So if you are working with the match odds for example and backing the draw and you lay off later to green up, it will green up across the 3 options, home win, draw and away win.

For software that you can use to do other stuff and have ALL the bells and whistles, making a book for example or dutching the try out BetAngel, Soccer Mystic or BetIE. Each have pluses and minuses depending on what you are doing with your trading.

The plan of action will be to trade the under 2.5 goals market and also to set up a dutch on the correct score. Newcastle will be looking to get a win under the hand of Kevin Keegan. Not turning out the hero he was expected to be for the Toon Army. Newcastle have lost the last 4 away games and have not won for some time, 12 games to be exact. The scoreline forecast on Soccerstats.com is for over 2.5 goals.

Birmingham need a win  due to being a bit close to the relegation zone but Newcastle are only 2 places above I expect it will be a hard fought game.

Here is the screenshot of the correct score dutch first.

Here is the screenshot of the Match Odds dutched  for a home win and a draw. I have set this up in Learning mode  in BetIE so that I can try it out without risking the betting bank.

After the way things went after Exeter scored I decided that I would trade out and so I did when York put in another. That was at 70 minutes and you never know it could have been possible for Exeter to score a couple of goals and get it back to a draw, although now at 83 minutes I doubt it. Football is rather special in the way that anything can happen. So I have 23.23 Euro more in Betfair after commission and 15.91 pounds less in WBX. Kind of the way I wanted it to happen this evening.

Tomorrow I will be looking at ways to use the £25 free bet I have left in WBX. I will be looking for odds similar in Betfair and maybe I will have the extra funds in Betfair on the first go or maybe I will have to find something I can cash it out with later.

I like WBX for the fact that I can place small bets with it. £1 is the minimum compared to the minimum of £2 or 4 euro on Betfair. Betdaq have a smaller minimum than at Betfair also.

Just checked the final score with York and Exeter and it was probably the best thing to do to trade out as it finished 3-2 and it would have left 5 mins plus extra time to worry about it ending up a draw.

Would have been worth looking in Soccer Mystic to see how the odds would be likely to move during the game with the goals going in.

So far looking at the results we have profits of 65 Euro for the day based on an exposure of 100 on each dutch. If you have a look at the pictures of the dutches I set up in BetIE you will see how the figures were set up. There is still one Premiership game running and that is the Wigan vs Arsenal.

It is still nil nil and I didn’t include the 0-0 scoreline in the dutch so I would like to see a goal from one side or the other.

All in all the correct score trial is going very well. I will be interested to see how it looks in a months time. At the moment the profit overall is €594 but that will drop by 35 Euro if there is no score in the Wigan vs Arsenal game.

All the fun of the F.A. Cup

Earlier I had a disaster time with the Middlesborough vs Cardiff FA Cup game. I had used up some of the cash in WBX to back the overs and on Betfair I backed the unders. Then of course the goals started to go in after the second goal at half time I decided to do some trading out of the unders on Betfair. I had the game on the TV and I thought there was a good change of another goal. Thinking didn’t do much any favours and in the end I lost the money on Betfair and also on WBX. So you can see that being clever wasn’t such a good idea when I had a risk free bet and all I had to to was watch and wait. I amaze myself sometimes.

Now I have another risk free bet set up on the Bristol Rovers vs West Bromich Albion I used a tenner of a free bet on which the stake is not returned. So if it goes over 2.5 goals I win £11.25 on WBX and if it stays under then I win €12.15 minus the 5% commission on Betfair. I am not really bothered which one wins for me, but I will be looking closely at the odds on offer at 89 – 90 minutes to see if there is a chance of getting paid from both if 2 goals have already been scored.

I have a friend that is introducing me to the delights of trading tennis. Thanks Arno. I had a go yesterday on Betfair with the tennis with mixed results. I should have used the learning mode really in BetIE but decided to try it out with BetAngel and just use small trade amounts.

The first one I had a go with I traded very conservatively and took a small profit when it presented itself. If I had waited a little longer I could have had more. But easy does it when learning eh !! Then I tried the Tipsarevic match and we didn’t get that right and I traded out for a 6 euro loss. Could be a good idea to use a stop loss on some of these games.

On the subject of using a stop loss I am not sure I like them because you are saying yes give me a loss if you have it set up wrong. There are times when the odds go the opposite direction to what you would like and trigger the stop loss the head back in the right direction later to where you could have made some money. A good use of a stop loss would be where you already have some profit in the ladder interface of your betting software and set a stop loss so that if it does go south you catch it before if goes into minus numbers. You can set a stop loss in BetIE, BetAngel and also in BinarySoft.

Back to the tennis – Later I trade on the Nadal game. he was favourite to win but the odds were definitely value at 1.37 and got better when he lost the first set. I traded during that first set and made back part of my loss from the previous match. I could have had some trust on Nadal to fight he way to a win but I left it and did some other things until the footy came available in the evening. But when players like Federer get beat as he did on Monday, then it shows that anything can happen with tennis, besides with this first time trading tennis discretion and safety is the order of the day.

Champions League Football

I was watching the Manchester United game on the TV and I traded on it to make back some more of the tennis loss and I also had a small trade on the Arsenal game. I ended the day slightly down, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. On the Arsenal game I traded out early because it was about 15 -20 minutes into the game when I got in and the odds seemed slow to move for most of the time I was looking. I wanted to sit and watch the Man United game also so getting out with a small profit was the thing to do.

Soccer Mystic is great software for trading the football, I love it when I can see what is likely to happen with the odds in the price predictor. Sometimes you have to give it a minute or two to get the information resolved to be able to present the graph of how it expects the prices to move but it doesn’t usually take too long. I am still not keen on all of the windows you have to work with but then I am running the software within a virtual machine on my Mac and perhaps if you have more screen space it is not so bad.

Horse Racing

I have just spent 10 minutes setting up the bets in BetIE with the tips from RacingPlace using the 80/20 method of staking. I will check it late this evening after the races are finished at Wolverhampton and post up the verdict tomorrow.

I got the game 5 minutes late but thought I would give it a go anyway and wouldn’t you know it the market suspended before the price had a chance to move much. Decided to put in another buy at the new odds so that I would move to a profit quicker so long as no more goals went in. I just left it then and was able to trade out about 15 20 mins later to a small profit. The second goal went in at sixty minutes and I have just spotted that Liverpool have scored again. Gerards complaints about how well they have been playing lately seems to have had a positive effect on the team.

I used BinarySoft for trading today. I only have a small betting bank so I started with a 0.2 size of a back or buy to start the position on the under 2.5 goals and I put in the same again just after the first goal. It didn’t take too long to be able to trade out for a small profit despite the goal going in at 12 minutes. I would have preferred to have got in at the start of the game and take the couple of ticks movement an be greened up at 10 minutes.

As I was writing this another goal went in, this time one for Bolton, but it will be a little late with only 10 minutes left to the end of the game.

I set up some dutches for the correct scores using BetIE yesterday and got it right with all eight games that were being played I put 100 euro on each bet and the profit at the end of the was 208 euro. From my spreadsheet I have set up to record these type of bets I have profit of 561 euro from 25 games.

To set up those types of dutching bets you have to use BetIE or the BetAngel Professional You can also do the dutching in Soccer Mystic. But I didn’t have Windows running on my Mac and didn’t want to start it either so I stayed with BinarySoft which was great for what I was doing.

Might trade on the Everton Portsmouth game which starts in half an hour too.

By the way I am not pleased with Betfair regards the way they want to charge more if you have more than 20 data request per second. It will mean that I will perhaps only be able to run one piece of software at one time so as not to get charged more, or I will have to limit the number of markets monitored in BinarySoft.

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I thought it was high time that there was a video showing how this software works. The concept is different in that instead of using the Betfair odds 1.87 or 3.45 or something like that, you have zero to one hundred. The closer you get to 100 the closer you are to the event happening. 99 for example would be equivalent to 1.01 in Betfair odds.

With trading you would buy at 55 for example and sell at 56 or higher to make money on the trade. Or you could sell at 66 and buy at 65 or lower to make money. It just depends on which way the money is going. For me at the start of a football game the odds head down or come in (in Betfair terms) and with BinarySoft the number goes up.

What I like to do is to buy at the start of a game and take my profit at 5 or 10 minutes into the game. I even think it is a good idea to set the sell to take just a couple of ticks of profit and get out quickly. Maybe it seems a little strange just reading about the concept, it took me a while to get my head around it, but once you see it in action you will understand it better and see the logic in it.