The Footy Trader

I sent in an email and within half an hour I get the free bet credited to my account in AscotSports. Not bad huh? The Bet is not stake returned  but I dealt with that when I set up the new matched bet in the Spreadsheet. I backed the draw in the Aston Villa game at odds of 3.55 and the best odds I could get for the lay on Betfair was 3.95.

The spreadsheet tells me to place a bet of €29.42 on the lay side of the draw on Betfair. This gives me a liability of €86.80. Thats what I lose on Betfair if it ends as a draw. But I will have €114 as winnings on AscotSports. The spreadsheet tells me that I will have profit of €27.95 whichever way it goes.

I would prefer if either side wins though to have the money cashed out in Betfair. Or I will be making a withdraw through AscotSports.

here is a screen shot I took earlier of the position I had on the Bundesliga game. I decided at 70 minutes to not take any chances and green up. It would have been great if Duisburg had come from behind and scored enough to win I would have had money on both sides of the matched bet. It cost me €3.50 to do that but I did have the peace of mind for the last 20 minutes of the game.

Here are 3 screen shots of the dutching of today’s games. At the moment the Fulham game is running but the it is still nil nil.

Fulham vs Everton

Wigan vs Bolton

Manchester City vs Spurs

All the dutches set up in BetIE – Betty the one click betting software

lets see how it works out…….

Rangers are playing Werder Bremen at home, Bolton play Sporting Lisbon  and Spurs have PSV Eindoven at home, while Everton are away in Fiorentina. So  there will be some interesting games this evening. Rangers game will be tough Bremen are a good side usually and as far as I can see anything could happen in the other games.

I will try to trade for a couple of ticks at the start of the games and get out early. I should be able to hit the 1% target that way easily enough. If there are any goals I may trade further, as the odds fall pretty  fast just after a goal.  Have to be on the look out for a quick equaliser but that doesn’t happen that often.

I would be tempted to do something with the other games on this evening, for exampple the Benfica vs Getafe but it will be better to concentrate on the games with the British clubs involvement because there will be more liquidity in those games.

I will probably start the trades just as the games are about to get under way and put in the sell order when the match has started. Then it will be fingers crossed for the movement of the odds with the under 2.5 goals markets to go as they always do when there are no goals scored. If the odds look a little on the slow side then I might consider trading out half of the opening position for less profit rather than letting it ride.

Soccer Mystic and BetAngel will be the tools of choice this evening. I could do the same sort of thing with BetIE and there is a hedging tool within the software too. BetIE is good because there are no monthly fees, very good value. I like to see a full ladder interface though as you get with the aforementioned softwares and also with Binarysoft. Binarysoft has the extra advantage for me seeing as I work on a Mac and it works native and I don’t have to break out the Parallels virtual software to run Windows as a virtual machine inside my iMac. Horses for courses really and whatever it is that you are doing on Betfair.

I got the game 5 minutes late but thought I would give it a go anyway and wouldn’t you know it the market suspended before the price had a chance to move much. Decided to put in another buy at the new odds so that I would move to a profit quicker so long as no more goals went in. I just left it then and was able to trade out about 15 20 mins later to a small profit. The second goal went in at sixty minutes and I have just spotted that Liverpool have scored again. Gerards complaints about how well they have been playing lately seems to have had a positive effect on the team.

I used BinarySoft for trading today. I only have a small betting bank so I started with a 0.2 size of a back or buy to start the position on the under 2.5 goals and I put in the same again just after the first goal. It didn’t take too long to be able to trade out for a small profit despite the goal going in at 12 minutes. I would have preferred to have got in at the start of the game and take the couple of ticks movement an be greened up at 10 minutes.

As I was writing this another goal went in, this time one for Bolton, but it will be a little late with only 10 minutes left to the end of the game.

I set up some dutches for the correct scores using BetIE yesterday and got it right with all eight games that were being played I put 100 euro on each bet and the profit at the end of the was 208 euro. From my spreadsheet I have set up to record these type of bets I have profit of 561 euro from 25 games.

To set up those types of dutching bets you have to use BetIE or the BetAngel Professional You can also do the dutching in Soccer Mystic. But I didn’t have Windows running on my Mac and didn’t want to start it either so I stayed with BinarySoft which was great for what I was doing.

Might trade on the Everton Portsmouth game which starts in half an hour too.

By the way I am not pleased with Betfair regards the way they want to charge more if you have more than 20 data request per second. It will mean that I will perhaps only be able to run one piece of software at one time so as not to get charged more, or I will have to limit the number of markets monitored in BinarySoft.

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Successful trading last night using BetAngel. I put in my first trade in the Spurs game after the first goal. I traded until I had about half of my target 1% of my betting bank and greened up. Then I moved to the under 3.5 goals market to set up a new trade.

I also got a trade going on the Bolton game and did the same and then greened up. Decided to grab a bit more from trading on the Benfica vs Nurnberg. I did this one as it was quite late in the game and quite likely that it would stay under 2.5 goals.

In the end I made 2.28% profit on the betting bank which was good going and safe too.

RacingPlace and 80-20

Another day yesterday with a small loss 0.32 points which for the 20 euro bets I am working with equals €7.33 after the commission is taken into account. We have to remember that this is a long term propostion and 2 days with a small loss is not the end of the world. What I have done also is to sign up for the 7 day free trial of the tips from 80-20 itself and will look at it separate to see how it works out with profits. I looked into the January and February stats for their tips and did a spreadsheet to work out how the money would have worked out with my stake size.

By my calculations it took them two and half days to get into profit in January and the rest of the month was just a gradual growth of the betting bank. The day one was minus 46 euro and the day two was minus 2.76 euro and day three saw a profit of €57.56. During the month the daily profit varied between minus 140 and plus 137 Euro and the final tally for the month was a profit of €404. Now you have to bear in mind that this is an approximate figure because I could have gone into the bettiing exchange at a different time of day and gor different odds completely. Perhaps better, perhaps worse odds. I expect we would not be too far out though.

With my direct and live test of the numbers I am still in profit after 3 days of testing by €146 and it is still too early to say if it will be a total success for the month. Looking very promising though. Also today I have checked the prices in Betdaq instead of Betfair for the Racing place tips and Betfair for the 80-20 tips.

I tried out the plan to trade with nearly all of my betting bank right at the start of the game with the Under 2.5 goal market. I bet 85 euro on the unders and got odds of 2.06. Just as the game started the odds went up one tick then started on its way down. I laid off 60 of the trade at 2.02. The I laid off a fiver at 1.98, tenners at 1.97 and 1.95. So at ten minutes into the game I was in with a profit of 4.80 approx on the unders. I then greened up to leave me with 2.48 whichever the final score was.

So the final result for the day was 2.89% increase of the betting bank. A good result I think.

My internet let me down again. The day started off OK and I was able to log in an make a post in the blog but when I went back to do some more there was no connection. I was thinking that I would have to some ringing of the provider and complaining on Monday morning again, second time in 2 weeks. But hey presto here we are again back on line, totally mysterious…..

Racing Place

Just checked out the results for yesterday and they showed a loss of nearly 14 points, not too healthy.

Yesterdays Results Profit = -13.95 Points
Races Bet on = 28
Races Won = 7
Strike Rate = 25 %

As can be seen in the monthly stats they started off well April through to July but went kind of downhill after that. You have to hope they are going to see a turn around some time soon.

I think I will just keep on watching Racing Place for a while longer.

Football Trading

I would have traded on the Northern Ireland game and possibly the Scotland games yesterday. The NI game would have worked out well but there was an early goal in the Scotland game. The 3rd goal came on the 90 minutes so it would probably have been OK in the end but would have taken some time to get to a trading out level I expect.

Lets see what happens today then….

I started the day with the local derby of Birmingham City and Aston Villa, the first goal went in and I wasn’t greened up. I think it went in about 12 mins and I had a fiver left to green up. I put more onto it, another tenner and was in the process of bring it down. I could have got a better price after the market reformed but I was not getting matched and the price was flying down. So I could have done better. In the end with lots of small trades I got it so there was a small loss on the under 2.5 goals. I then went to the under under 3.5 goals and put on a small bet so that reduced the loss on the game to a matter of cents.

All of the other games I traded on I made a profit and the overall result was a 7.34% increase of the betting bank. Getting the confidence back after a couple of poor days was important too. I traded on the Bolton, Man United, Spurs, Chelsea Portsmouth and Villareal games. The best profit coming off the Chelsea game. I traded cautiously but was able to green up and then just sit back. On the low scoring games I was able to enhance the greened up numbers by placing a final bet on the unders to release some of the money that was on the overs side of the green. Only works out to a few cents extra but it all helps and very little risk.

Normally I use exclusively BetIE but I had a program sitting in the wings that I wanted to have a try with. BetIE is great, especially if you want to test out a theory or system but I wish it had tabs in the interface that allowed me to keep an eye on a few games at the same time. A friend of mine just opens up multiple instances of BetIE and that does the trick for him. Anyway I had BetTraderPro there and there were some minutes available to use in the ladder part of the interface, which is the part you have to pay for. You can either pay for it with buying by minutes which would suit a low usage or you can pay my the month , quarter or year. £4.95 for 200 minutes wouldn’t last me very long, even with switching back to the grid side which allows it to revert back to free.

The guy that demonstrates it, Adam is an amusing sort and has a nice little video showing how he made some money trading on the horses, in the last 5 or 10 minutes before the off. The advanced coin flipping technique, this is where you don’t know if the odds are coming in or going out and you just guess. If it goes the wrong way and you have a 50 50 chance then you stop it or scratch the bet either to a 1 or 2 tick loss or no loss. But if you guess right you let it ride to something like a 10 tick profit. Not an original concept but appeared to work when applied to the horses and the best thing is that you don’t have to waste time studying form.

Overall I liked the interface, it was attractive and intuitive, which always helps. Being free to use the grid trading is nice and is better than using the standard Betfair interface. The ladder is just great for the trading, having a wide range of prices in the window and the ability to quickly centre the prices works well. Excuse the pun but with betting software it is horses for courses, BetIE is good for the horses especially if you are hedging in running, dutching, and is passable for the trading. BetIE excels regards the ability to test out an idea and keep you betting bank safe with the learning mode. I have used that a lot. BetTraderPro looks nicer and is better for the trading. The only thing is that you have to pay for it in use, either buying minutes or by month, quarter or year. I do like the fact that I have BetIE and it is all paid for and no more to pay.

Racing Place

Results from yesterday are very good indeed and go quite some way to pulling back from the desperate start to the month. As you can see there is a 20 point profit which for me would have increases the bank by 80 euro. I wasn’t in on it as I was busy with the football and still wanting to lurk around to see if some better result happen.

The strike rate was in the usual range of between 45 to 55% which is where it needs to be for profits. I think that it must have been so good because of higher priced horses getting in the placings.

I will probably come back to this system when I am ready, ie when I have built up the betting bank to a sufficient level to be able to get through the lean days. Long term profit is the goal with this one.